--- title: "Elite Box case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Elite Box ($0.18) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.79% from 9 items with odds, observed 86.53% over 13.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elite-box rendered: 2026-11-11T20:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Elite Box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elite-box) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Elite Box A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elite-box?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elite-box?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elite-box) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elite-box?window=all) Price · $0.18 · 0.36 coins Advertised RTP · 88.79% · EV $0.16 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.53% · 13.5K openings, odds method Variance · 20.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 38.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.17% ±23.46 1,451 openings 7 days · 85.49% ±8.30 11.6K openings 30 days · 86.53% ±7.69 13.5K openings since tracking started · 86.53% ±7.69 13.5K openings 72.0% 96.3% 120.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elite-box?window=24h) | 1,451 | 96.17% ±23.5 | +0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elite-box?window=7d) | 11.6K | 85.49% ±8.30 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elite-box) | 13.5K | 86.53% ±7.69 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elite-box?window=all) | 13.5K | 86.53% ±7.69 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $53.59 107 coins | 3.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.48× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $22.21 44.41 coins | 6.9% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $9.67 19.34 coins | 6.1% | 11 | 13.5 | 0.81× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $3.12 6.23 coins | 9.7% | 64 | 67.6 | 0.95× | | [P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $0.71 1.43 coins | 6.7% | 214 | 202.9 | 1.05× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $0.56 1.11 coins | 5.2% | 203 | 202.9 | 1.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.17 0.35 coins | 10.9% | 1,332 | 1352.8 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.13 0.26 coins | 20.3% | 3,414 | 3382.0 | 1.01× | | [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-field-tested) | 61.3% | $0.08 0.16 coins | 30.7% | 8,284 | 8298.1 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $53.59 107 coins 297.7x 2026-11-11 03:22 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) [asSpeed](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/asSpeed) $0.18 0.36 coins $53.59 107 coins 297.7x 2026-11-04 09:16 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $22.21 44.41 coins 123.4x 2026-11-10 11:10 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $22.21 44.41 coins 123.4x 2026-11-08 09:24 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $22.21 44.41 coins 123.4x 2026-11-08 02:21 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) [asSpeed](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/asSpeed) $0.18 0.36 coins $22.21 44.41 coins 123.4x 2026-11-04 09:15 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $9.67 19.34 coins 53.72x 2026-11-10 20:38 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) [SirQwazy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/SirQwazy) $0.18 0.36 coins $9.67 19.34 coins 53.72x 2026-11-09 15:48 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) [SirQwazy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/SirQwazy) $0.18 0.36 coins $9.67 19.34 coins 53.72x 2026-11-09 15:40 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $9.67 19.34 coins 53.72x 2026-11-09 15:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=elite-box) [Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-field-tested) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $0.08 0.16 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $0.13 0.26 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-field-tested) [Fustfej123](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Fustfej123) $0.18 0.36 coins $0.08 0.16 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $0.13 0.26 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-field-tested) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $0.08 0.16 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) [Fustfej123](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Fustfej123) $0.18 0.36 coins $0.17 0.35 coins 0.97x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $0.17 0.35 coins 0.97x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $0.13 0.26 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-field-tested) [Fustfej123](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Fustfej123) $0.18 0.36 coins $0.08 0.16 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $0.18 0.36 coins $0.13 0.26 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.18 | 88.79% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.2% mil spec 61.8% #4b69ff 26.5% Rare 11.5% best hit $53.59 (297.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.79 on average: an expected loss of $11.21 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt