--- title: "Emperor case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Emperor ($17.77) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 8 items with odds, observed 85.54% over 72 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/emperor rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Emperor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/emperor) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Emperor A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/emperor?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/emperor?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/emperor) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/emperor?window=all) Price · $17.77 · 35.54 coins Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $15.99 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.54% · 72 openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 36.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 72 openings · below min 30 days · 72 openings · below min since tracking started · 72 openings · below min 48.0% 197.3% 346.5% **Small sample.** 72 openings and 25.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/emperor?window=24h) | 6 | 217.31% ±128.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/emperor?window=7d) | 72 | 85.54% ±37.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/emperor) | 72 | 85.54% ±37.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/emperor?window=all) | 72 | 85.54% ±37.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $250 500 coins | 15.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $98.35 197 coins | 12.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 33.0% | $26.67 53.34 coins | 55.0% | 26 | 23.8 | 1.09× | | [FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-factory-new) | 25.0% | $6.05 12.1 coins | 9.5% | 16 | 18.0 | 0.89× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 21.7% | $5.17 10.34 coins | 7.0% | 20 | 15.6 | 1.28× | | [P2000 \| Turf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.53 1.06 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× | | [P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.52 1.04 coins | 0.2% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.96× | | [AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.51 1.02 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=emperor) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $17.77 35.54 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 1.50x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $17.77 35.54 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 1.50x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) Hidden $17.77 35.54 coins $98.35 197 coins 5.53x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $17.77 35.54 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 1.50x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $17.77 35.54 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 1.50x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [kruley](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kruley) $17.77 35.54 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 1.50x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC [P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $17.77 35.54 coins $5.17 10.34 coins 0.29x 2026-11-07 17:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $17.77 35.54 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 1.50x 2026-11-07 17:29 UTC [P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $17.77 35.54 coins $5.17 10.34 coins 0.29x 2026-11-07 17:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $17.77 35.54 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 1.50x 2026-11-07 17:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.77 | 90.01% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.0% classified 54.7% restricted 25.0% Rare 5.8% blue 5.8% mil spec 5.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt