--- title: "ERROR 404 case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ERROR 404 ($41.08) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 13 items with odds, observed 135.55% over 18 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/error-404 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [ERROR 404](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/error-404) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · ERROR 404 A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/error-404?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/error-404?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/error-404) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/error-404?window=all) Price · $41.08 · 82.16 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $36.97 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 135.55% · 18 openings, odds method Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 11 openings · below min 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 18 openings · below min since tracking started · 18 openings · below min 21.5% 177.3% 333.0% **Small sample.** 18 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/error-404?window=24h) | 11 | 187.21% ±145.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/error-404?window=7d) | 18 | 135.55% ±113.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/error-404) | 18 | 135.55% ±113.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/error-404?window=all) | 18 | 135.55% ±113.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,353 2,706 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| NiKo (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,253 2,507 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,197 2,393 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,011 2,022 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $465 930 coins | 25.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $89.12 178 coins | 19.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $83.56 167 coins | 18.1% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.08× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 12.0% | $25.16 50.31 coins | 8.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 15.0% | $14.33 28.65 coins | 5.8% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 14.6% | $13.43 26.86 coins | 5.3% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) | 15.0% | $5.81 11.61 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 15.0% | $5.51 11.01 coins | 2.2% | 6 | 2.7 | 2.22× | | [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 10.0% | $2.12 4.23 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=error-404) [Charm | Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) Hidden $41.08 82.16 coins $13.43 26.86 coins 0.33x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $41.08 82.16 coins $83.56 167 coins 2.03x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $41.08 82.16 coins $89.12 178 coins 2.17x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $41.08 82.16 coins $465 930 coins 11.33x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $41.08 82.16 coins $5.51 11.01 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $41.08 82.16 coins $83.56 167 coins 2.03x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $41.08 82.16 coins $83.56 167 coins 2.03x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $41.08 82.16 coins $5.51 11.01 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $41.08 82.16 coins $5.51 11.01 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $41.08 82.16 coins $5.51 11.01 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $41.08 | 89.99% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 14.7% other 2.1% covert 8.1% #EB4B4B 0.1% mil spec 8.0% Rare 12.0% restricted 15.0% light blue 15.0% classified 15.0% blue 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt