---
title: "F Gnarled case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "F Gnarled ($1.54) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.90% from 16 items with odds, observed 86.67% over 3,036 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/f-gnarled
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [F Gnarled](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/f-gnarled)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · F Gnarled

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/f-gnarled?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/f-gnarled?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/f-gnarled) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/f-gnarled?window=all)

Price · $1.54 · 3.08 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.90% · EV $1.38 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.67% · 3,036 openings, odds method

Variance · 193.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 178.85% ±97.12 786 openings

7 days · 90.19% ±53.04 2,635 openings

30 days · 86.67% ±49.42 3,036 openings

since tracking started · 86.67% ±49.42 3,036 openings

36.5% 156.5% 276.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/f-gnarled?window=24h) | 786 | 178.85% ±97.1 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/f-gnarled?window=7d) | 2,635 | 90.19% ±53.0 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/f-gnarled) | 3,036 | 86.67% ±49.4 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/f-gnarled?window=all) | 3,036 | 86.67% ±49.4 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,036 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,265 2,529 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $994 1,988 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $984 1,967 coins | 7.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $519 1,037 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $519 1,037 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $493 986 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $487 973 coins | 3.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Facets (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-field-tested) | 31.0% | $2.73 5.45 coins | 61.0% | 932 | 941.2 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.3% | 303 | 300.6 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.03 0.06 coins | 0.2% | 317 | 300.6 | 1.05× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 288 | 300.6 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.1% | 277 | 300.6 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 320 | 300.6 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 311 | 300.6 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 286 | 289.0 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $1.54 3.08 coins $984 1,967 coins 638.8x 2026-11-11 01:48 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $1.54 3.08 coins $487 973 coins 316.0x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=f-gnarled)

[Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $1.54 3.08 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $1.54 3.08 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[P250 | Facets (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-field-tested) Hidden $1.54 3.08 coins $2.73 5.45 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[P250 | Facets (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-field-tested) Hidden $1.54 3.08 coins $2.73 5.45 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[P250 | Facets (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-field-tested) Hidden $1.54 3.08 coins $2.73 5.45 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-field-tested) Hidden $1.54 3.08 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) Hidden $1.54 3.08 coins $0.03 0.06 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-field-tested) [eliboti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eliboti) $1.54 3.08 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-field-tested) Hidden $1.54 3.08 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-field-tested) Hidden $1.54 3.08 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.54 | 89.90% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% epic 0.0% Covert 0.0% knifes 0.0% other 0.0% industrial 40.9% consumer 39.2% mil spec 9.9% Rare 9.9% #4b69ff 0.0% best hit $984 (638.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.90 on average: an expected loss of $10.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt