---
title: "Factory Seal case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Factory Seal ($13.66) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 12 items with odds, observed 82.62% over 3,960 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/factory-seal
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Factory Seal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/factory-seal)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Factory Seal

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/factory-seal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/factory-seal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/factory-seal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/factory-seal?window=all)

Price · $13.66 · 27.32 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $12.29 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.62% · 3,960 openings, odds method

Variance · 50.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 112.79% ±90.91 233 openings

7 days · 82.45% ±24.76 3,142 openings

30 days · 82.62% ±22.05 3,960 openings

since tracking started · 82.62% ±22.05 3,960 openings

21.0% 112.8% 204.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/factory-seal?window=24h) | 233 | 112.79% ±90.9 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/factory-seal?window=7d) | 3,142 | 82.45% ±24.8 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/factory-seal) | 3,960 | 82.62% ±22.1 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/factory-seal?window=all) | 3,960 | 82.62% ±22.1 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,960 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $8,972 17,944 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,181 12,362 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $797 1,594 coins | 6.5% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $195 391 coins | 15.9% | 32 | 39.6 | 0.81× |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $130 259 coins | 15.8% | 70 | 59.4 | 1.18× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-hazard-pay-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $92.34 185 coins | 22.5% | 106 | 118.8 | 0.89× |
| [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $53.36 107 coins | 17.4% | 170 | 158.4 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $16.76 33.52 coins | 8.2% | 247 | 237.6 | 1.04× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $6.58 13.16 coins | 3.7% | 268 | 277.2 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.95 1.91 coins | 0.8% | 387 | 396.0 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.17 0.35 coins | 0.2% | 607 | 594.0 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 52.4% | $0.07 0.14 coins | 0.3% | 2,068 | 2074.4 | 1.00× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $797 1,594 coins 58.35x 2026-11-11 07:11 UTC

[Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $797 1,594 coins 58.35x 2026-11-11 07:01 UTC

[Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $797 1,594 coins 58.35x 2026-11-10 12:59 UTC

[Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $797 1,594 coins 58.35x 2026-11-07 19:56 UTC

[Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $797 1,594 coins 58.35x 2026-11-03 10:52 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=factory-seal)

[P2000 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $0.17 0.35 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC

[MP7 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC

[MP7 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC

[P2000 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $0.17 0.35 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC

[Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $53.36 107 coins 3.91x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC

[P2000 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $0.17 0.35 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC

[MP7 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC

[M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $13.66 27.32 coins $16.76 33.52 coins 1.23x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC

[Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $53.36 107 coins 3.91x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[MP7 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $13.66 27.32 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.66 | 89.98% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.0% #4B69FF 0.1% Classified 5.0% #d32ee6 1.5% classified 3.0% mil spec 65.4% industrial 10.0% Rare 15.0% best hit $797 (58.35x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt