--- title: "Fade case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fade ($26.59) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 97.24% over 122 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fade rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Fade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fade) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Fade A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fade?window=all) Price · $26.59 · 53.18 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $23.93 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.24% · 122 openings, odds method Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 62 openings · below min 30 days · 97.24% ±39.81 122 openings since tracking started · 97.24% ±39.81 122 openings 31.5% 88.0% 144.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fade?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fade?window=7d) | 62 | 87.86% ±55.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fade) | 122 | 97.24% ±39.8 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fade?window=all) | 122 | 97.24% ±39.8 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $522 1,043 coins | 10.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $253 506 coins | 10.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $231 461 coins | 19.3% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $130 259 coins | 27.1% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.66× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $58.26 117 coins | 12.2% | 10 | 6.1 | 1.64× | | [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) | 20.0% | $12.17 24.33 coins | 10.2% | 26 | 24.4 | 1.07× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 20.0% | $11.52 23.04 coins | 9.6% | 23 | 24.4 | 0.94× | | [Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) | 46.5% | $0.10 0.2 coins | 0.2% | 54 | 56.7 | 0.95× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $26.59 53.18 coins $522 1,043 coins 19.62x 2026-11-04 11:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=fade) [R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) Hidden $26.59 53.18 coins $11.52 23.04 coins 0.43x 2026-11-09 18:04 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $26.59 53.18 coins $0.10 0.2 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 18:04 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $26.59 53.18 coins $0.10 0.2 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 18:04 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) [Greg](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Greg) $26.59 53.18 coins $11.52 23.04 coins 0.43x 2026-11-09 18:04 UTC [MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $26.59 53.18 coins $12.17 24.33 coins 0.46x 2026-11-09 18:04 UTC [MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $26.59 53.18 coins $12.17 24.33 coins 0.46x 2026-11-09 18:04 UTC [MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $26.59 53.18 coins $12.17 24.33 coins 0.46x 2026-11-09 18:04 UTC [MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $26.59 53.18 coins $12.17 24.33 coins 0.46x 2026-11-09 18:04 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $26.59 53.18 coins $0.10 0.2 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 22:57 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) Hidden $26.59 53.18 coins $11.52 23.04 coins 0.43x 2026-11-08 22:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.59 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.5% covert 28.0% classified 5.0% mil spec 20.0% milspec 46.5% best hit $522 (19.62x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt