--- title: "Fader case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fader ($56.08) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 73.40% over 66 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fader rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Fader](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fader) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Fader A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fader?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fader?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fader) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fader?window=all) Price · $56.08 · 112 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $50.47 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.40% · 66 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 48 openings · below min 30 days · 66 openings · below min since tracking started · 66 openings · below min 34.5% 77.3% 120.0% **Small sample.** 66 openings and 9.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fader?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fader?window=7d) | 48 | 77.12% ±42.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fader) | 66 | 73.40% ±35.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fader?window=all) | 66 | 73.40% ±35.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 15.0% | $234 469 coins | 69.7% | 9 | 9.9 | 0.91× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $130 259 coins | 12.8% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $75.78 152 coins | 7.5% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | | [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $54.12 108 coins | 5.4% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $6.04 12.08 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.47 10.93 coins | 0.6% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.23 10.45 coins | 0.6% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.17 10.34 coins | 0.6% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.52× | | [R8 Revolver \| Canal Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.71 5.41 coins | 0.4% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.69 5.38 coins | 0.4% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.33× | | [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.63 5.26 coins | 0.4% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× | | [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.62 5.23 coins | 0.4% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× | | [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.28 2.56 coins | 0.1% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.17 2.33 coins | 0.1% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.89× | | [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.16 2.32 coins | 0.1% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.52× | | [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.15 2.29 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=fader) [★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $56.08 112 coins $234 469 coins 4.18x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) Hidden $56.08 112 coins $5.23 10.45 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC [Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) Hidden $56.08 112 coins $5.47 10.93 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $56.08 112 coins $6.04 12.08 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) Hidden $56.08 112 coins $2.69 5.38 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $56.08 112 coins $1.17 2.33 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) Hidden $56.08 112 coins $2.69 5.38 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC [Five-SeveN | Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) Hidden $56.08 112 coins $54.12 108 coins 0.96x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $56.08 112 coins $75.78 152 coins 1.35x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) Hidden $56.08 112 coins $1.17 2.33 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $56.08 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.0% restricted 26.0% classified 18.0% mil spec 10.0% consumer 8.0% Mil Spec Grade 8.0% Consumer Grade 8.0% #4b69ff 2.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt