---
title: "Festive case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Festive ($49.93) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 84.61% over 476 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/festive
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Festive](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/festive)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Festive

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/festive?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/festive?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/festive) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/festive?window=all)

Price · $49.93 · 99.85 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $44.93 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.61% · 476 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 79.77% ±32.69 410 openings

30 days · 84.61% ±30.34 476 openings

since tracking started · 84.61% ±30.34 476 openings

46.5% 81.0% 115.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/festive?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/festive?window=7d) | 410 | 79.77% ±32.7 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/festive) | 476 | 84.61% ±30.3 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/festive?window=all) | 476 | 84.61% ±30.3 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 476 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,880 3,759 coins | 4.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,699 3,398 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,581 3,163 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,448 2,897 coins | 6.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,385 2,771 coins | 6.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 500 | $1,293 2,585 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 333 | $1,010 2,020 coins | 6.7% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.10× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 250 | $835 1,669 coins | 7.4% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $510 1,020 coins | 4.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $202 405 coins | 13.5% | 17 | 14.3 | 1.19× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $155 310 coins | 10.4% | 15 | 14.3 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $123 247 coins | 8.2% | 11 | 14.3 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $114 227 coins | 7.6% | 11 | 14.3 | 0.77× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $100 201 coins | 6.7% | 13 | 14.3 | 0.91× |
| [Souvenir Galil AR \| VariCamo (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-varicamo-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $75.08 150 coins | 5.0% | 11 | 14.3 | 0.77× |
| [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) | 80.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 389 | 380.8 | 1.02× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $1,880 3,759 coins 37.65x 2026-11-08 15:17 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $1,448 2,897 coins 29.01x 2026-11-08 15:32 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $1,385 2,771 coins 27.75x 2026-11-09 11:34 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 20.23x 2026-11-08 15:32 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 20.23x 2026-11-07 03:57 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 20.23x 2026-11-03 16:07 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $835 1,669 coins 16.72x 2026-11-03 16:07 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $510 1,020 coins 10.22x 2026-11-08 15:24 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $510 1,020 coins 10.22x 2026-11-03 16:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=festive)

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $202 405 coins 4.05x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $114 227 coins 2.27x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $49.93 99.85 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:02 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-factory-new) Hidden $49.93 99.85 coins $100 201 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 12:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $49.93 | 89.99% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.1% covert 4.3% legendary 0.2% epic 0.4% covert knife 6.0% #ffd700 3.0% classified 3.0% other 3.0% #4b69ff 80.0% best hit $1,880 (37.65x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt