--- title: "Final Roll case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Final Roll ($26.25) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 14 items with odds, observed 81.70% over 58 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/final-roll rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Final Roll](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/final-roll) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Final Roll A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/final-roll?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/final-roll?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/final-roll) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/final-roll?window=all) Price · $26.25 · 52.49 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $23.62 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.70% · 58 openings, odds method Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 50 openings · below min 30 days · 58 openings · below min since tracking started · 58 openings · below min 1.5% 154.3% 307.0% **Small sample.** 58 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/final-roll?window=24h) | 8 | 154.11% ±152.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/final-roll?window=7d) | 50 | 86.71% ±60.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/final-roll) | 58 | 81.70% ±56.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/final-roll?window=all) | 58 | 81.70% ±56.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $285 570 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $270 541 coins | 11.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $251 501 coins | 10.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $187 373 coins | 11.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 67 | $178 356 coins | 11.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $166 332 coins | 10.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $52.80 106 coins | 6.7% | 5 | 1.7 | 2.87× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 25 | $44.59 89.17 coins | 7.6% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× | | [Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $39.43 78.85 coins | 7.5% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $33.19 66.38 coins | 7.0% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.72× | | [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $12.54 25.08 coins | 2.9% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1.11 2.22 coins | 0.3% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.25 0.5 coins | 0.2% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.80× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 49.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 29 | 28.7 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=final-roll) [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $26.25 52.49 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $26.25 52.49 coins $44.59 89.17 coins 1.70x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Nova | Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) Hidden $26.25 52.49 coins $39.43 78.85 coins 1.50x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $26.25 52.49 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $26.25 52.49 coins $187 373 coins 7.12x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $26.25 52.49 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $26.25 52.49 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) [optic1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/optic1000) $26.25 52.49 coins $52.80 106 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $26.25 52.49 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-factory-new) Hidden $26.25 52.49 coins $1.11 2.22 coins 0.04x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.25 | 89.98% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 1.0% covert knife 2.5% restricted 19.0% covert 10.5% extraordinary 1.5% classified 4.5% industrial 5.5% Mythical 6.0% #4b69ff 49.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt