--- title: "Finding Nemo case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Finding Nemo ($20.81) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 80.73% over 50 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/finding-nemo rendered: 2026-11-11T15:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Finding Nemo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/finding-nemo) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Finding Nemo A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/finding-nemo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/finding-nemo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/finding-nemo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/finding-nemo?window=all) Price · $20.81 · 41.62 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $18.73 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.73% · 50 openings, odds method Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 50 openings · below min 30 days · 50 openings · below min since tracking started · 50 openings · below min 30.0% 80.8% 131.5% **Small sample.** 50 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/finding-nemo?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/finding-nemo?window=7d) | 50 | 80.73% ±50.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/finding-nemo) | 50 | 80.73% ±50.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/finding-nemo?window=all) | 50 | 80.73% ±50.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 50 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $245 489 coins | 13.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $207 415 coins | 11.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $93.95 188 coins | 15.0% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $62.66 125 coins | 13.4% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $54.06 108 coins | 14.4% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.00× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $50.13 100 coins | 13.4% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $18.27 36.53 coins | 4.9% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $12.42 24.83 coins | 3.3% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.60× | | [MP9 \| Dry Season (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dry-season-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $11.19 22.38 coins | 3.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× | | [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.96 17.92 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $8.20 16.4 coins | 2.2% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.00× | | [MAG-7 \| Seabird (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.20 6.39 coins | 0.9% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× | | [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.46 4.92 coins | 0.7% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.60× | | [XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.52 3.04 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.99 1.99 coins | 1.1% | 15 | 10.0 | 1.50× | | [Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) | 21.0% | $0.79 1.58 coins | 0.9% | 5 | 10.5 | 0.48× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=finding-nemo) [USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.81 41.62 coins $54.06 108 coins 2.60x 2026-11-10 07:59 UTC [USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.81 41.62 coins $54.06 108 coins 2.60x 2026-11-10 07:59 UTC [USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.81 41.62 coins $54.06 108 coins 2.60x 2026-11-10 07:59 UTC [Negev | Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) Hidden $20.81 41.62 coins $0.79 1.58 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 07:59 UTC [USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.81 41.62 coins $54.06 108 coins 2.60x 2026-11-10 07:59 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $20.81 41.62 coins $8.20 16.4 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 07:59 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $20.81 41.62 coins $8.20 16.4 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 07:59 UTC [USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.81 41.62 coins $54.06 108 coins 2.60x 2026-11-10 07:59 UTC [USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.81 41.62 coins $54.06 108 coins 2.60x 2026-11-10 07:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-field-tested) Hidden $20.81 41.62 coins $0.99 1.99 coins 0.05x 2026-11-08 16:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.81 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 13.0% restricted 37.0% Industrial Grade 5.0% consumer 10.0% mil spec 25.0% classified 5.0% Mythical 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt