--- title: "Fire Dance case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Fire Dance ($1.15) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.62% from 8 items with odds, observed 90.36% over 532 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-dance rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Fire Dance](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-dance) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Fire Dance A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-dance?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-dance?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-dance) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-dance?window=all) Price · $1.15 · 2.3 coins Advertised RTP · 89.62% · EV $1.03 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.36% · 532 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 88.18% ±14.69 308 openings 30 days · 90.36% ±11.18 532 openings since tracking started · 90.36% ±11.18 532 openings 24.0% 77.3% 130.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-dance?window=24h) | 24 | 77.17% ±52.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-dance?window=7d) | 308 | 88.18% ±14.7 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-dance) | 532 | 90.36% ±11.2 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-dance?window=all) | 532 | 90.36% ±11.2 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 532 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.75 13.49 coins | 19.6% | 18 | 16.0 | 1.13× | | [FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.05 12.1 coins | 17.6% | 15 | 16.0 | 0.94× | | [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $2.09 4.17 coins | 18.2% | 48 | 47.9 | 1.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $2.01 4.02 coins | 17.6% | 47 | 47.9 | 0.98× | | [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.60 1.2 coins | 7.0% | 52 | 63.8 | 0.81× | | [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.58 1.17 coins | 6.8% | 66 | 63.8 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.55 1.1 coins | 6.4% | 70 | 63.8 | 1.10× | | [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-factory-new) | 40.0% | $0.17 0.35 coins | 6.8% | 216 | 212.8 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=fire-dance) [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) Hidden $1.15 2.3 coins $0.55 1.1 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) Hidden $1.15 2.3 coins $2.09 4.17 coins 1.81x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-factory-new) Hidden $1.15 2.3 coins $0.17 0.35 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $1.15 2.3 coins $0.60 1.2 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-factory-new) Hidden $1.15 2.3 coins $0.17 0.35 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) Hidden $1.15 2.3 coins $6.75 13.49 coins 5.87x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $1.15 2.3 coins $0.60 1.2 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $1.15 2.3 coins $2.09 4.17 coins 1.81x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-field-tested) Hidden $1.15 2.3 coins $0.58 1.17 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 16:35 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) Hidden $1.15 2.3 coins $0.55 1.1 coins 0.48x 2026-11-10 16:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.15 | 89.62% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 6.0% Mythical 9.0% mil spec 21.0% violet 12.0% blue 12.0% #4b69ff 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.62 on average: an expected loss of $10.38 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt