--- title: "Fire Serpent case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Fire Serpent ($3.21) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.87% from 13 items with odds, observed 90.30% over 21.1K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-serpent rendered: 2026-11-11T15:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Fire Serpent](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-serpent) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Fire Serpent A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-serpent?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-serpent?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-serpent) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-serpent?window=all) Price · $3.21 · 6.41 coins Advertised RTP · 89.87% · EV $2.88 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.30% · 21.1K openings, odds method Variance · 61.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 106 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.10% ±41.26 1,386 openings 7 days · 93.95% ±12.58 14.9K openings 30 days · 90.30% ±10.57 21.1K openings since tracking started · 90.30% ±10.57 21.1K openings 43.0% 85.0% 127.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-serpent?window=24h) | 1,386 | 85.10% ±41.3 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-serpent?window=7d) | 14.9K | 93.95% ±12.6 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-serpent) | 21.1K | 90.30% ±10.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fire-serpent?window=all) | 21.1K | 90.30% ±10.6 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,828 3,656 coins | 6.3% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.42× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $648 1,295 coins | 6.7% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.26× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $236 472 coins | 8.2% | 22 | 21.1 | 1.04× | | [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $127 254 coins | 11.0% | 42 | 52.8 | 0.79× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $113 226 coins | 9.8% | 48 | 52.8 | 0.91× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $80.48 161 coins | 8.4% | 60 | 63.4 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $59.52 119 coins | 7.2% | 82 | 74.0 | 1.11× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $34.73 69.46 coins | 8.4% | 143 | 147.9 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $33.19 66.38 coins | 8.1% | 132 | 147.9 | 0.89× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $8.91 17.81 coins | 7.7% | 524 | 528.3 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.17 10.34 coins | 5.4% | 606 | 634.0 | 0.96× | | [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.63 5.26 coins | 5.5% | 1,259 | 1268.0 | 0.99× | | [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 85.8% | $0.24 0.48 coins | 7.1% | 18,204 | 18134.2 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 570.4x 2026-11-06 09:21 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 570.4x 2026-11-05 20:40 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 570.4x 2026-11-05 20:35 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $648 1,295 coins 202.1x 2026-11-11 02:38 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $648 1,295 coins 202.1x 2026-11-09 20:36 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $648 1,295 coins 202.1x 2026-11-09 03:32 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) [tijsv20](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/tijsv20) $3.21 6.41 coins $648 1,295 coins 202.1x 2026-11-07 18:41 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $648 1,295 coins 202.1x 2026-11-05 10:57 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $648 1,295 coins 202.1x 2026-11-04 02:59 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $648 1,295 coins 202.1x 2026-11-03 23:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=fire-serpent) [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) [conR](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/conR) $3.21 6.41 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $3.21 6.41 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.21 | 89.87% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.6% restricted 86.1% classified 4.0% Ancient 0.4% Mil Spec Grade 6.0% best hit $1,828 (570.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.87 on average: an expected loss of $10.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt