--- title: "Fireline case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Fireline ($2.22) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 79.24% over 35.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fireline rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Fireline](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fireline) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Fireline A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fireline?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fireline?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fireline) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fireline?window=all) Price · $2.22 · 4.44 coins Advertised RTP · 89.91% · EV $2.00 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.24% · 35.7K openings, odds method Variance · 520.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,538 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6,169 openings · below min 7 days · 82.32% ±25.73 30.2K openings 30 days · 79.24% ±23.64 35.7K openings since tracking started · 79.24% ±23.64 35.7K openings 11.5% 69.0% 126.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fireline?window=24h) | 6,169 | 69.07% ±56.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fireline?window=7d) | 30.2K | 82.32% ±25.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fireline) | 35.7K | 79.24% ±23.6 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fireline?window=all) | 35.7K | 79.24% ±23.6 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,948 7,896 coins | 19.8% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,828 3,656 coins | 22.9% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.12× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $648 1,295 coins | 9.7% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $113 226 coins | 8.5% | 55 | 53.6 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $93.28 187 coins | 11.7% | 79 | 89.3 | 0.88× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $15.38 30.75 coins | 7.7% | 366 | 357.4 | 1.02× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $14.24 28.47 coins | 14.3% | 686 | 714.7 | 0.96× | | [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 35.0% | $0.24 0.48 coins | 4.2% | 12,502 | 12507.6 | 1.00× | | [Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) | 61.5% | $0.04 0.08 coins | 1.2% | 22,025 | 21990.1 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $3,948 7,896 coins 1,778x 2026-11-09 19:33 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [gramou](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/gramou) $2.22 4.44 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 823.4x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [gramou](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/gramou) $2.22 4.44 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 823.4x 2026-11-09 20:23 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 823.4x 2026-11-09 04:04 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 823.4x 2026-11-09 03:26 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 823.4x 2026-11-09 02:26 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 823.4x 2026-11-09 00:28 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 823.4x 2026-11-08 22:02 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 823.4x 2026-11-07 09:39 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 823.4x 2026-11-06 06:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=fireline) [Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $2.22 4.44 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) Hidden $2.22 4.44 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.22 | 89.91% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 3.3% classified 0.1% restricted 35.0% mil spec 61.5% best hit $3,948 (1,778x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.91 on average: an expected loss of $10.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt