--- title: "Fishy case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fishy ($0.44) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.56% from 13 items with odds, observed 93.68% over 8,607 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fishy rendered: 2026-11-11T16:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Fishy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fishy) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Fishy A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fishy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fishy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fishy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fishy?window=all) Price · $0.44 · 0.88 coins Advertised RTP · 89.56% · EV $0.39 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.68% · 8,607 openings, odds method Variance · 107.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.03% ±60.68 1,123 openings 7 days · 99.48% ±24.01 7,174 openings 30 days · 93.68% ±21.92 8,607 openings since tracking started · 93.68% ±21.92 8,607 openings 25.5% 87.0% 148.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fishy?window=24h) | 1,123 | 87.03% ±60.7 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fishy?window=7d) | 7,174 | 99.48% ±24.0 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fishy) | 8,607 | 93.68% ±21.9 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fishy?window=all) | 8,607 | 93.68% ±21.9 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,611 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $259 519 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $252 504 coins | 6.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $131 262 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $129 258 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $62.66 125 coins | 7.9% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.63× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $45.11 90.22 coins | 5.7% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $26.67 53.34 coins | 4.1% | 2 | 5.2 | 0.39× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $26.63 53.26 coins | 4.1% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $22.39 44.77 coins | 3.4% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $18.27 36.53 coins | 2.8% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× | | [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.08 2.16 coins | 24.7% | 820 | 775.0 | 1.06× | | [M249 \| Downtown (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.04 2.07 coins | 23.6% | 766 | 775.0 | 0.99× | | [MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) | 81.6% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 4.1% | 6,990 | 7028.3 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $252 504 coins 572.7x 2026-11-06 21:38 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $252 504 coins 572.7x 2026-11-04 20:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $129 258 coins 293.6x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $62.66 125 coins 142.4x 2026-11-08 02:12 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $62.66 125 coins 142.4x 2026-11-08 01:25 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $62.66 125 coins 142.4x 2026-11-07 22:34 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $62.66 125 coins 142.4x 2026-11-07 18:24 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) [vahidka023gma](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/vahidka023gma) $0.44 0.88 coins $62.66 125 coins 142.4x 2026-11-06 20:17 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $62.66 125 coins 142.4x 2026-11-06 15:10 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $62.66 125 coins 142.4x 2026-11-06 08:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=fishy) [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC [M249 | Downtown (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-factory-new) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $1.04 2.07 coins 2.35x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) [chxngezs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chxngezs) $0.44 0.88 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) [chxngezs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chxngezs) $0.44 0.88 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) Hidden $0.44 0.88 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.44 | 89.56% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 81.6% covert 0.2% classified 0.1% knifes 0.0% covert knife 0.0% restricted 9.1% violet 9.0% best hit $252 (572.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.56 on average: an expected loss of $10.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt