---
title: "FlashBang case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "FlashBang ($16.61) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 117.79% over 1,090 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flashbang
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [FlashBang](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flashbang)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · FlashBang

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flashbang?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flashbang?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flashbang) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flashbang?window=all)

Price · $16.61 · 33.22 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $14.95 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 117.79% · 1,090 openings, odds method

Variance · 29.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 72 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 24 openings · below min

7 days · 106.06% ±35.83 870 openings

30 days · 117.79% ±32.01 1,090 openings

since tracking started · 117.79% ±32.01 1,090 openings

69.5% 286.0% 502.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flashbang?window=24h) | 24 | 286.11% ±215.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flashbang?window=7d) | 870 | 106.06% ±35.8 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flashbang) | 1,090 | 117.79% ±32.0 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flashbang?window=all) | 1,090 | 117.79% ±32.0 | +1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,090 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 6,667 | $2,877 5,754 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 5,714 | $2,112 4,224 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,241 2,481 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,201 2,403 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,125 2,251 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,119 2,238 coins | 3.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,089 2,177 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $657 1,315 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $438 876 coins | 29.3% | 15 | 10.9 | 1.38× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $151 302 coins | 20.2% | 23 | 21.8 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $37.48 74.96 coins | 10.3% | 41 | 44.7 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $14.08 28.16 coins | 6.3% | 64 | 72.6 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $2.69 5.38 coins | 1.3% | 70 | 76.3 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 21.0% | $1.97 3.94 coins | 2.8% | 232 | 228.9 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 12.9% | $0.71 1.42 coins | 0.6% | 137 | 140.1 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-field-tested) | 45.0% | $0.07 0.15 coins | 0.2% | 502 | 490.5 | 1.02× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $2,877 5,754 coins 173.2x 2026-11-03 02:11 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $1,201 2,403 coins 72.33x 2026-11-05 00:13 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $1,119 2,238 coins 67.38x 2026-11-08 14:19 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $1,119 2,238 coins 67.38x 2026-11-07 08:27 UTC

[★ Karambit | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $1,089 2,177 coins 65.54x 2026-11-07 09:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $657 1,315 coins 39.58x 2026-11-03 11:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=flashbang)

[Tec-9 | Flash Out (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-field-tested) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC

[Tec-9 | Flash Out (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-field-tested) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC

[MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $14.08 28.16 coins 0.85x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $0.71 1.42 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $1.97 3.94 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[Tec-9 | Flash Out (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $16.61 33.22 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $0.71 1.42 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC

[Tec-9 | Flash Out (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-field-tested) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $0.71 1.42 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $16.61 33.22 coins $438 876 coins 26.38x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.61 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed high 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% covert 1.3% classified 2.0% restricted 24.0% red 6.7% Mythical 21.0% mil spec 45.0% best hit $2,877 (173.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt