--- title: "FLEX case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "FLEX ($248.65) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 13 items with odds, observed 75.39% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flex rendered: 2026-11-12T00:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [FLEX](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flex) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · FLEX A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flex?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flex?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flex) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flex?window=all) Price · $248.65 · 497 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $223.78 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.39% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 20 openings · below min 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min 11.5% 75.3% 139.0% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 3.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flex?window=24h) | 20 | 75.39% ±63.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flex?window=7d) | 20 | 75.39% ±63.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flex) | 20 | 75.39% ±63.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flex?window=all) | 20 | 75.39% ±63.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,398 18,795 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,209 8,418 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,134 6,269 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,317 4,635 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $1,692 3,384 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 13 | $632 1,265 coins | 22.6% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $424 849 coins | 15.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $343 685 coins | 12.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $257 514 coins | 9.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-factory-new) | 21.0% | $66.23 132 coins | 6.2% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× | | [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 21.0% | $66.04 132 coins | 6.2% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 23.3% | $50.13 100 coins | 5.2% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.07× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $249 497 coins $632 1,265 coins 2.54x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $249 497 coins $632 1,265 coins 2.54x 2026-11-11 21:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=flex) [★ Talon Knife | Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $249 497 coins $343 685 coins 1.38x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $249 497 coins $632 1,265 coins 2.54x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $249 497 coins $50.13 100 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) Hidden $249 497 coins $66.04 132 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $249 497 coins $257 514 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $249 497 coins $424 849 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) Hidden $249 497 coins $66.04 132 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) [iwillwinbruh](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/iwillwinbruh) $249 497 coins $50.13 100 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $249 497 coins $257 514 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 21:19 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $249 497 coins $50.13 100 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 21:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $249 | 90.00% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.7% Knives 1.0% legendary 1.0% Covert 8.0% mil spec 29.0% #ffd700 8.0% restricted 21.0% Industrial Grade 23.3% best hit $632 (2.54x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt