---
title: "Flinch case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Flinch ($1.32) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 88.32% over 6,203 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flinch
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Flinch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flinch)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Flinch

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flinch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flinch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flinch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flinch?window=all)

Price · $1.32 · 2.64 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.91% · EV $1.19 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.32% · 6,203 openings, odds method

Variance · 17.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 70.48% ±37.57 464 openings

7 days · 86.77% ±10.95 5,458 openings

30 days · 88.32% ±10.28 6,203 openings

since tracking started · 88.32% ±10.28 6,203 openings

32.5% 70.5% 108.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flinch?window=24h) | 464 | 70.48% ±37.6 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flinch?window=7d) | 5,458 | 86.77% ±11.0 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flinch) | 6,203 | 88.32% ±10.3 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flinch?window=all) | 6,203 | 88.32% ±10.3 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,203 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $138 275 coins | 11.6% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.64× |
| [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Stained (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $55.81 112 coins | 9.4% | 16 | 12.4 | 1.29× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $33.72 67.44 coins | 5.7% | 15 | 12.4 | 1.21× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $21.98 43.95 coins | 4.6% | 14 | 15.5 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $9.52 19.03 coins | 6.0% | 48 | 46.5 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $7.59 15.17 coins | 6.4% | 61 | 62.0 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $4.00 8 coins | 8.4% | 145 | 155.1 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $3.51 7.01 coins | 7.4% | 162 | 155.1 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.01 4.01 coins | 5.1% | 174 | 186.1 | 0.94× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.58 3.15 coins | 4.0% | 164 | 186.1 | 0.88× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.54 3.08 coins | 3.9% | 167 | 186.1 | 0.90× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1.12 2.23 coins | 5.6% | 379 | 372.2 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 6.4% | 451 | 465.2 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.51 1.01 coins | 4.3% | 624 | 620.3 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.36 0.72 coins | 9.1% | 1,921 | 1860.9 | 1.03× |
| [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.09 0.17 coins | 2.1% | 1,858 | 1860.9 | 1.00× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $138 275 coins 104.3x 2026-11-10 10:18 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $138 275 coins 104.3x 2026-11-06 01:46 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $138 275 coins 104.3x 2026-11-04 18:13 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [gramou](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/gramou) $1.32 2.64 coins $138 275 coins 104.3x 2026-11-03 23:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=flinch)

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC

[P90 | Ancient Earth (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $0.36 0.72 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $7.59 15.17 coins 5.75x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $4.00 8 coins 3.03x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[P90 | Ancient Earth (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.64 coins $0.36 0.72 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.32 | 89.91% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.1% industrial 0.2% classified 1.5% Mythical 0.8% Rare 2.5% Uncommon 5.5% #777777 3.0% violet 3.0% #8847ff 13.5% mil spec 10.0% Consumer Grade 60.0% best hit $138 (104.3x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.91 on average: an expected loss of $10.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt