--- title: "Flocktail Hour case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Flocktail Hour ($15.08) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.98% from 8 items with odds, observed 84.11% over 230 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flocktail-hour rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Flocktail Hour](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flocktail-hour) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Flocktail Hour A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flocktail-hour?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flocktail-hour?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flocktail-hour) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flocktail-hour?window=all) Price · $15.08 · 30.16 coins Advertised RTP · 87.98% · EV $13.27 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.11% · 230 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 55.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 89.25% ±14.36 183 openings 30 days · 84.11% ±12.81 230 openings since tracking started · 84.11% ±12.81 230 openings 70.5% 87.5% 104.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flocktail-hour?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flocktail-hour?window=7d) | 183 | 89.25% ±14.4 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flocktail-hour) | 230 | 84.11% ±12.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flocktail-hour?window=all) | 230 | 84.11% ±12.8 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 230 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,156 4,312 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 10.0% | $45.68 91.35 coins | 34.4% | 22 | 23.0 | 0.96× | | [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 10.0% | $22.29 44.58 coins | 16.8% | 29 | 23.0 | 1.26× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 12.5% | $19.42 38.83 coins | 18.3% | 22 | 28.8 | 0.77× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 12.5% | $16.67 33.34 coins | 15.7% | 26 | 28.8 | 0.90× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 12.5% | $7.59 15.17 coins | 7.1% | 19 | 28.8 | 0.66× | | [Nova \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) | 12.5% | $6.70 13.4 coins | 6.3% | 33 | 28.8 | 1.15× | | [AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.51 1.02 coins | 1.2% | 79 | 69.0 | 1.14× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=flocktail-hour) [Nova | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) [BluntLynx8390](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BluntLynx8390) $15.08 30.16 coins $6.70 13.4 coins 0.44x 2026-11-09 18:58 UTC [AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 30.16 coins $0.51 1.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 18:58 UTC [MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 30.16 coins $22.29 44.58 coins 1.48x 2026-11-09 18:58 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 30.16 coins $16.67 33.34 coins 1.11x 2026-11-09 18:58 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) [BluntLynx8390](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BluntLynx8390) $15.08 30.16 coins $16.67 33.34 coins 1.11x 2026-11-09 18:57 UTC [AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 30.16 coins $0.51 1.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 18:57 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 30.16 coins $19.42 38.83 coins 1.29x 2026-11-09 18:57 UTC [Nova | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 30.16 coins $6.70 13.4 coins 0.44x 2026-11-09 18:57 UTC [Nova | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 30.16 coins $6.70 13.4 coins 0.44x 2026-11-09 18:44 UTC [AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 30.16 coins $0.51 1.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 18:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.08 | 87.98% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 47.5% #4b69ff 10.0% restricted 12.5% mil spec 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.98 on average: an expected loss of $12.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt