--- title: "Flux case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Flux ($2.05) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 16 items with odds, observed 93.68% over 1,456 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flux rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Flux](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flux) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Flux A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flux?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flux?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flux) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flux?window=all) Price · $2.05 · 4.1 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $1.84 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.68% · 1,456 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80 openings · below min 7 days · 95.94% ±8.09 1,014 openings 30 days · 93.68% ±6.75 1,456 openings since tracking started · 93.68% ±6.75 1,456 openings 67.0% 96.5% 126.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flux?window=24h) | 80 | 96.57% ±28.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flux?window=7d) | 1,014 | 95.94% ±8.09 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flux) | 1,456 | 93.68% ±6.75 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/flux?window=all) | 1,456 | 93.68% ±6.75 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,456 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $14.72 29.43 coins | 8.0% | 15 | 14.6 | 1.03× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $12.90 25.79 coins | 7.0% | 19 | 14.6 | 1.30× | | [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $9.14 18.27 coins | 9.9% | 29 | 29.1 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $7.59 15.17 coins | 8.2% | 34 | 29.1 | 1.17× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $6.11 12.21 coins | 9.9% | 53 | 43.7 | 1.21× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.78 9.55 coins | 12.9% | 68 | 72.8 | 0.93× | | [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.11 8.22 coins | 11.1% | 78 | 72.8 | 1.07× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $2.72 5.44 coins | 8.8% | 73 | 87.4 | 0.84× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.67 3.34 coins | 5.4% | 89 | 87.4 | 1.02× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.34 2.67 coins | 5.1% | 111 | 101.9 | 1.09× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.07 2.13 coins | 4.0% | 94 | 101.9 | 0.92× | | [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.83 1.67 coins | 3.2% | 96 | 101.9 | 0.94× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.64 1.27 coins | 2.4% | 89 | 101.9 | 0.87× | | [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 13.0% | $0.39 0.77 coins | 2.7% | 191 | 189.3 | 1.01× | | [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-factory-new) | 14.0% | $0.15 0.31 coins | 1.2% | 207 | 203.8 | 1.02× | | [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 14.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 210 | 203.8 | 1.03× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=flux) [R8 Revolver | Grip (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-factory-new) Hidden $2.05 4.1 coins $0.15 0.31 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-factory-new) Hidden $2.05 4.1 coins $0.15 0.31 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) Hidden $2.05 4.1 coins $2.72 5.44 coins 1.33x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) Hidden $2.05 4.1 coins $4.78 9.55 coins 2.33x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $2.05 4.1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-factory-new) Hidden $2.05 4.1 coins $0.15 0.31 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $2.05 4.1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $2.05 4.1 coins $1.07 2.13 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $2.05 4.1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $2.05 4.1 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.05 | 89.98% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 6.0% Rare 1.0% pink 15.0% #d32ee6 11.0% industrial 5.0% restricted 14.0% Mythical 7.0% milspec 13.0% mil spec 14.0% Consumer Grade 14.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt