--- title: "Forest Mist case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Forest Mist ($85.43) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 66.61% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest-mist rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Forest Mist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest-mist) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Forest Mist A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest-mist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest-mist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest-mist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest-mist?window=all) Price · $85.43 · 171 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $76.88 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 66.61% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 98.3% 197.0% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest-mist?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest-mist?window=7d) | 8 | 66.61% ±129.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest-mist) | 8 | 66.61% ±129.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest-mist?window=all) | 8 | 66.61% ±129.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,241 2,481 coins | 16.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $528 1,056 coins | 17.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $254 507 coins | 13.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $235 470 coins | 12.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $212 423 coins | 11.0% | 2 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $187 373 coins | 9.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $133 267 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $59.51 119 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $57.67 115 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-factory-new) | 10.0% | $27.96 55.92 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 10.0% | $10.89 21.78 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-field-tested) | 10.0% | $5.61 11.21 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.04 2.08 coins | 0.2% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.33× | | [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) | 21.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=forest-mist) [Galil AR | Winter Forest (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-factory-new) Hidden $85.43 171 coins $27.96 55.92 coins 0.33x 2026-11-05 15:16 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $85.43 171 coins $212 423 coins 2.48x 2026-11-05 15:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $85.43 171 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 15:16 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $85.43 171 coins $212 423 coins 2.48x 2026-11-05 15:16 UTC [PP-Bizon | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Merleben](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Merleben) $85.43 171 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-05 15:16 UTC [PP-Bizon | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $85.43 171 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-05 15:16 UTC [PP-Bizon | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $85.43 171 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-05 15:16 UTC [PP-Bizon | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $85.43 171 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-05 15:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $85.43 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% Covert 7.5% other 12.0% covert knife 8.0% #ffd700 5.0% Industrial Grade 10.0% Consumer Grade 25.0% industrial 10.0% consumer 21.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt