---
title: "Forest case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Forest ($176.38) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds, observed 96.43% over 24 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Forest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Forest

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest?window=all)

Price · $176.38 · 353 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $158.74 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.43% · 24 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 8 openings · below min

7 days · 24 openings · below min

30 days · 24 openings · below min

since tracking started · 24 openings · below min

1.0% 68.0% 135.0%

**Small sample.** 24 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest?window=24h) | 8 | 67.07% ±65.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest?window=7d) | 24 | 96.43% ±37.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest) | 24 | 96.43% ±37.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/forest?window=all) | 24 | 96.43% ±37.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $744 1,488 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $739 1,478 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $721 1,443 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $721 1,442 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $510 1,020 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $506 1,011 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $502 1,004 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $259 519 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 11.0% | $259 517 coins | 17.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 11.0% | $254 508 coins | 17.6% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 11.0% | $252 504 coins | 17.5% | 7 | 2.6 | 2.65× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 11.0% | $75.38 151 coins | 5.2% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 11.0% | $75.32 151 coins | 5.2% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) | 11.0% | $75.09 150 coins | 5.2% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.52× |
| [Tec-9 \| Hades (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-factory-new) | 11.0% | $12.80 25.6 coins | 0.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) | 11.0% | $12.53 25.05 coins | 0.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.24 0.48 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $176 353 coins $721 1,442 coins 4.09x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=forest)

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $176 353 coins $75.38 151 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $176 353 coins $254 508 coins 1.44x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $176 353 coins $252 504 coins 1.43x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-factory-new) Hidden $176 353 coins $12.80 25.6 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $176 353 coins $252 504 coins 1.43x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[M249 | Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) Hidden $176 353 coins $12.53 25.05 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $176 353 coins $75.09 150 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $176 353 coins $12.80 25.6 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $176 353 coins $252 504 coins 1.43x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

[M249 | Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) Hidden $176 353 coins $12.53 25.05 coins 0.07x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $176 | 90.00% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed knifes 2.0% covert 36.0% epic 1.0% Covert 1.0% covert knife 12.0% classified 11.0% mil spec 11.0% Industrial Grade 11.0% #87c7ff 11.0% Mythical 2.0% #4b69ff 2.0% best hit $721 (4.09x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt