--- title: "Formal case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Formal ($7.78) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 8 items with odds, observed 100.29% over 3,501 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/formal rendered: 2026-11-11T15:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Formal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/formal) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Formal A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/formal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/formal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/formal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/formal?window=all) Price · $7.78 · 15.55 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $7.00 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.29% · 3,501 openings, odds method Variance · 76.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.75% ±92.76 342 openings 7 days · 112.66% ±33.28 2,657 openings 30 days · 100.29% ±28.99 3,501 openings since tracking started · 100.29% ±28.99 3,501 openings -0.5% 83.8% 168.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/formal?window=24h) | 342 | 74.75% ±92.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/formal?window=7d) | 2,657 | 112.66% ±33.3 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/formal) | 3,501 | 100.29% ±29.0 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/formal?window=all) | 3,501 | 100.29% ±29.0 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,517 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,112 4,224 coins | 30.2% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.42× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $249 497 coins | 7.1% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $104 208 coins | 3.0% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.85× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $49.33 98.65 coins | 17.6% | 77 | 87.9 | 0.88× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.60 15.19 coins | 10.9% | 390 | 351.7 | 1.11× | | [P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) | 25.0% | $5.03 10.05 coins | 18.0% | 877 | 879.3 | 1.00× | | [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) | 31.0% | $1.98 3.96 coins | 8.8% | 1,092 | 1090.3 | 1.00× | | [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) | 31.0% | $1.02 2.04 coins | 4.5% | 1,063 | 1090.3 | 0.97× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $2,112 4,224 coins 271.6x 2026-11-09 21:12 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $2,112 4,224 coins 271.6x 2026-11-08 04:16 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $2,112 4,224 coins 271.6x 2026-11-06 00:01 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $2,112 4,224 coins 271.6x 2026-11-04 19:28 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $2,112 4,224 coins 271.6x 2026-11-04 16:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=formal) [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) [GrimViper3313](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/GrimViper3313) $7.78 15.55 coins $1.98 3.96 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $1.98 3.96 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [P2000 | Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $5.03 10.05 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [P2000 | Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $5.03 10.05 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [P2000 | Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $5.03 10.05 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $7.60 15.19 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $7.78 15.55 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.78 | 89.98% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 2.8% Extraordinary 0.2% #eb4b4b 10.0% Uncommon 25.0% restricted 31.0% Rare 31.0% best hit $2,112 (271.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt