--- title: "Fortune case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fortune ($81.12) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fortune rendered: 2026-11-11T15:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Fortune](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fortune) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Fortune A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fortune?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fortune?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fortune) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fortune?window=all) Price · $81.12 · 162 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $73.00 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fortune?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fortune?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fortune) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fortune?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,234 12,468 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,340 4,679 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,749 3,497 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $1,191 2,383 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $860 1,721 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $525 1,050 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $338 676 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $329 658 coins | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $315 630 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $204 409 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $117 235 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $60.29 121 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 22.0% | $35.33 70.65 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 57.4% | $30.88 61.75 coins | 24.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=fortune) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $81.12 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #ffd700 0.0% extraordinary 2.1% covert 39.2% covert knife 0.3% epic 1.0% restricted 57.4% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt