--- title: "Fracture case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Fracture ($101.98) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 91.71% over 2,601 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fracture rendered: 2026-11-11T14:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Fracture](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fracture) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Fracture A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fracture?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fracture?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fracture) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fracture?window=all) Price · $101.98 · 204 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $91.78 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.71% · 2,601 openings, odds method Variance · 16.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 101.36% ±30.05 703 openings 30 days · 91.71% ±15.62 2,601 openings since tracking started · 91.71% ±15.62 2,601 openings -0.5% 165.3% 331.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fracture?window=24h) | 8 | 48.78% ±281.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fracture?window=7d) | 703 | 101.36% ±30.0 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fracture) | 2,601 | 91.71% ±15.6 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fracture?window=all) | 2,601 | 91.71% ±15.6 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,601 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,675 17,351 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| LUCAS1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas1-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 6,667 | $7,441 14,883 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $6,892 13,784 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 3,333 | $6,327 12,654 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $6,222 12,443 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $6,181 12,362 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Sticker \| captainMo (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 2,500 | $5,513 11,026 coins | 2.4% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.88× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,761 9,523 coins | 2.6% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× | | [Charm \| Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) | 1 in 667 | $3,485 6,970 coins | 5.7% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× | | [Sticker \| Twistzz (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-twistzz-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 667 | $3,407 6,814 coins | 5.6% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $3,134 6,269 coins | 6.8% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $3,126 6,252 coins | 6.8% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $3,086 6,171 coins | 6.7% | 9 | 5.2 | 1.73× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 98.9% | $49.74 99.48 coins | 53.6% | 2,570 | 2571.7 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $102 204 coins $6,327 12,654 coins 62.05x 2026-11-04 00:05 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $6,222 12,443 coins 61.01x 2026-11-03 01:15 UTC [Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $102 204 coins $5,513 11,026 coins 54.06x 2026-11-05 20:05 UTC [Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $102 204 coins $5,513 11,026 coins 54.06x 2026-11-04 18:45 UTC [Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $102 204 coins $5,513 11,026 coins 54.06x 2026-11-03 01:16 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $4,761 9,523 coins 46.69x 2026-11-04 22:11 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $4,761 9,523 coins 46.69x 2026-11-03 01:21 UTC [Charm | Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) Hidden $102 204 coins $3,485 6,970 coins 34.17x 2026-11-09 18:44 UTC [Charm | Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) Hidden $102 204 coins $3,485 6,970 coins 34.17x 2026-11-03 01:14 UTC [Sticker | Twistzz (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-twistzz-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $102 204 coins $3,407 6,814 coins 33.41x 2026-11-04 18:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=fracture) [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 21:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 21:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 21:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 21:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 21:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 21:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 21:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $102 204 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 21:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 12:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $102 204 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 12:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $102 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.7% other 0.0% #EB4B4B 0.0% extraordinary 0.2% contraband 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.1% classified 98.9% best hit $6,327 (62.05x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt