--- title: "Fragile case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fragile ($28.13) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 5 items with odds, observed 134.55% over 26 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragile rendered: 2026-11-11T18:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Fragile](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragile) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Fragile A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragile?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragile?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragile) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragile?window=all) Price · $28.13 · 56.25 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $25.31 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 134.55% · 26 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 26 openings · below min since tracking started · 26 openings · below min 76.0% 130.8% 185.5% **Small sample.** 26 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragile?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragile?window=7d) | 18 | 130.57% ±54.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragile) | 26 | 134.55% ±45.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragile?window=all) | 26 | 134.55% ±45.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $83.53 167 coins | 29.7% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.71× | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $68.12 136 coins | 24.2% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $66.38 133 coins | 23.6% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.71× | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Stained (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $55.81 112 coins | 19.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) | 64.0% | $1.04 2.08 coins | 2.6% | 12 | 16.6 | 0.72× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=fragile) [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) Hidden $28.13 56.25 coins $83.53 167 coins 2.97x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) Hidden $28.13 56.25 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.04x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [Souvenir Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) Hidden $28.13 56.25 coins $55.81 112 coins 1.98x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.13 56.25 coins $66.38 133 coins 2.36x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.13 56.25 coins $66.38 133 coins 2.36x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) Hidden $28.13 56.25 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.04x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) Hidden $28.13 56.25 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.04x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [majin](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/majin) $28.13 56.25 coins $66.38 133 coins 2.36x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) Hidden $28.13 56.25 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.04x 2026-11-05 02:07 UTC [Souvenir Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) Hidden $28.13 56.25 coins $55.81 112 coins 1.98x 2026-11-05 02:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.13 | 89.99% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 9.0% restricted 9.0% covert 9.0% industrial 9.0% blue 64.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt