--- title: "Fragment case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Fragment ($1.53) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.84% from 8 items with odds, observed 98.19% over 640 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragment rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Fragment](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragment) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Fragment A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragment?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragment?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragment) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragment?window=all) Price · $1.53 · 3.06 coins Advertised RTP · 89.84% · EV $1.37 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.19% · 640 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94 openings · below min 7 days · 94.23% ±14.49 503 openings 30 days · 98.19% ±12.85 640 openings since tracking started · 98.19% ±12.85 640 openings 60.5% 94.8% 129.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragment?window=24h) | 94 | 94.85% ±33.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragment?window=7d) | 503 | 94.23% ±14.5 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragment) | 640 | 98.19% ±12.8 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fragment?window=all) | 640 | 98.19% ±12.8 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 640 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tec-9 \| Hades (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $9.11 18.22 coins | 33.1% | 34 | 32.0 | 1.06× | | [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.66 15.32 coins | 27.9% | 38 | 32.0 | 1.19× | | [P90 \| Death Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.59 9.17 coins | 16.7% | 36 | 32.0 | 1.13× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.04 2.08 coins | 7.6% | 71 | 64.0 | 1.11× | | [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.71 1.42 coins | 5.2% | 50 | 64.0 | 0.78× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.41 0.81 coins | 2.9% | 74 | 64.0 | 1.16× | | [G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-keeping-tabs-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.28 0.55 coins | 1.0% | 34 | 32.0 | 1.06× | | [SCAR-20 \| Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) | 50.0% | $0.15 0.31 coins | 5.6% | 303 | 320.0 | 0.95× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=fragment) [SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $1.53 3.06 coins $0.15 0.31 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:42 UTC [USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $1.53 3.06 coins $0.71 1.42 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 11:42 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $1.53 3.06 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 11:42 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) Hidden $1.53 3.06 coins $0.41 0.81 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 11:42 UTC [SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $1.53 3.06 coins $0.15 0.31 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:42 UTC [SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $1.53 3.06 coins $0.15 0.31 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:42 UTC [SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $1.53 3.06 coins $0.15 0.31 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 02:22 UTC [SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) [chicken123](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chicken123) $1.53 3.06 coins $0.15 0.31 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 02:22 UTC [SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $1.53 3.06 coins $0.15 0.31 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 02:22 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) Hidden $1.53 3.06 coins $0.41 0.81 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 02:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.53 | 89.84% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Industrial Grade 5.0% mil spec 5.0% restricted 15.0% Mythical 10.0% Consumer Grade 10.0% Mil Spec 5.0% Rare 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.84 on average: an expected loss of $10.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt