--- title: "Freakout case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Freakout ($96.94) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 24 items with odds, observed 87.71% over 631 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/freakout rendered: 2026-11-11T15:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Freakout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/freakout) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Freakout A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/freakout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/freakout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/freakout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/freakout?window=all) Price · $96.94 · 194 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $87.24 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.71% · 631 openings, odds method Variance · 22.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 86.05% ±39.07 577 openings 30 days · 87.71% ±37.36 631 openings since tracking started · 87.71% ±37.36 631 openings -0.5% 99.8% 200.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/freakout?window=24h) | 42 | 54.53% ±144.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/freakout?window=7d) | 577 | 86.05% ±39.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/freakout) | 631 | 87.71% ±37.4 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/freakout?window=all) | 631 | 87.71% ±37.4 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 631 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $217K 434,217 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $112K 223,312 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $73.5K 147,047 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $72.4K 144,822 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $52.4K 104,780 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $36.5K 72,902 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50,000 | $25.5K 51,019 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $555 1,110 coins | 19.1% | 16 | 18.9 | 0.85× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $554 1,107 coins | 19.0% | 13 | 18.9 | 0.69× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $550 1,099 coins | 18.9% | 24 | 18.9 | 1.27× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 33 | $549 1,098 coins | 18.9% | 26 | 18.9 | 1.37× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 33 | $546 1,092 coins | 18.8% | 18 | 18.9 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 16.5% | $0.53 1.06 coins | 0.1% | 91 | 104.1 | 0.87× | | [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 16.5% | $0.53 1.05 coins | 0.1% | 110 | 104.1 | 1.06× | | [P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) | 16.5% | $0.52 1.04 coins | 0.1% | 105 | 104.1 | 1.01× | | [AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) | 16.5% | $0.51 1.02 coins | 0.1% | 93 | 104.1 | 0.89× | | [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 19.0% | $0.51 1.01 coins | 0.1% | 135 | 119.8 | 1.13× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $555 1,110 coins 5.73x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $96.94 194 coins $555 1,110 coins 5.73x 2026-11-09 19:37 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $555 1,110 coins 5.73x 2026-11-09 18:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $555 1,110 coins 5.73x 2026-11-09 18:35 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $555 1,110 coins 5.73x 2026-11-07 11:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $555 1,110 coins 5.73x 2026-11-06 15:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $555 1,110 coins 5.73x 2026-11-06 13:44 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $555 1,110 coins 5.73x 2026-11-06 13:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $555 1,110 coins 5.73x 2026-11-06 13:37 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $555 1,110 coins 5.73x 2026-11-06 13:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=freakout) [AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $0.51 1.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $550 1,099 coins 5.67x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $0.53 1.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $0.53 1.06 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $0.51 1.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $0.52 1.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) [insane67](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/insane67) $96.94 194 coins $0.51 1.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $0.53 1.06 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) Hidden $96.94 194 coins $0.51 1.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $96.94 | 90.00% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.0% legendary 0.0% remarkable 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert knife 3.0% #EB4B4B 3.0% #8847ff 16.5% #87c7ff 16.5% blue 16.5% mil spec 35.5% best hit $555 (5.73x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt