---
title: "Fresh case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fresh ($54.46) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 93.38% over 1,530 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fresh
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Fresh](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fresh)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Fresh

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fresh?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fresh?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fresh) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fresh?window=all)

Price · $54.46 · 109 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $49.01 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.38% · 1,530 openings, odds method

Variance · 54.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 162 openings · below min

7 days · 103.85% ±42.74 1,144 openings

30 days · 93.38% ±36.96 1,530 openings

since tracking started · 93.38% ±36.96 1,530 openings

-0.5% 79.8% 160.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fresh?window=24h) | 162 | 45.69% ±113.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fresh?window=7d) | 1,144 | 103.85% ±42.7 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fresh) | 1,530 | 93.38% ±37.0 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fresh?window=all) | 1,530 | 93.38% ±37.0 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,530 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $11.7K 23,410 coins | 23.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.31× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $2,109 4,219 coins | 17.2% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.65× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $784 1,568 coins | 16.0% | 18 | 15.3 | 1.18× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $419 837 coins | 8.5% | 10 | 15.3 | 0.65× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $166 332 coins | 5.1% | 23 | 22.9 | 1.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $102 205 coins | 4.2% | 43 | 30.6 | 1.41× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $77.16 154 coins | 3.1% | 26 | 30.6 | 0.85× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $52.73 105 coins | 5.4% | 86 | 76.5 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $40.01 80.02 coins | 4.1% | 86 | 76.5 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $26.78 53.55 coins | 2.7% | 78 | 76.5 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 10.0% | $13.59 27.18 coins | 2.8% | 158 | 153.0 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.64 23.28 coins | 2.4% | 165 | 153.0 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 12.0% | $7.66 15.32 coins | 1.9% | 180 | 183.6 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 15.0% | $4.00 8 coins | 1.2% | 206 | 229.5 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.23 6.45 coins | 1.0% | 218 | 229.5 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Red Tire (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-red-tire-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.74 3.48 coins | 0.5% | 227 | 229.5 | 0.99× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $11.7K 23,410 coins 214.9x 2026-11-04 18:41 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $11.7K 23,410 coins 214.9x 2026-11-04 18:18 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $2,109 4,219 coins 38.73x 2026-11-10 03:50 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $2,109 4,219 coins 38.73x 2026-11-07 14:14 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $2,109 4,219 coins 38.73x 2026-11-04 17:58 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $2,109 4,219 coins 38.73x 2026-11-04 17:58 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $54.46 109 coins $784 1,568 coins 14.40x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $784 1,568 coins 14.40x 2026-11-07 14:12 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $784 1,568 coins 14.40x 2026-11-07 14:12 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $784 1,568 coins 14.40x 2026-11-06 22:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=fresh)

[Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $40.01 80.02 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $11.64 23.28 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $7.66 15.32 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Leather (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-field-tested) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $102 205 coins 1.88x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $13.59 27.18 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-field-tested) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $52.73 105 coins 0.97x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $3.23 6.45 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $54.46 109 coins $166 332 coins 3.04x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $7.66 15.32 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $54.46 109 coins $4.00 8 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $54.46 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 12.6% legendary 0.4% industrial 20.0% Mythical 5.0% classified 10.0% mil spec 22.0% covert 15.0% restricted 15.0% best hit $11.7K (214.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt