--- title: "Frozen Feather case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Frozen Feather ($21.05) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 90.03% over 52 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen-feather rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Frozen Feather](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen-feather) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Frozen Feather A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen-feather?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen-feather?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen-feather) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen-feather?window=all) Price · $21.05 · 42.09 coins Advertised RTP · 89.00% · EV $18.73 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.03% · 52 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 52 openings · below min since tracking started · 52 openings · below min 10.5% 86.3% 162.0% **Small sample.** 52 openings and 7.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen-feather?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen-feather?window=7d) | 20 | 86.12% ±75.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen-feather) | 52 | 90.03% ±46.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen-feather?window=all) | 52 | 90.03% ±46.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,024 2,049 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $202 405 coins | 10.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $95.96 192 coins | 10.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $66.94 134 coins | 10.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $61.59 123 coins | 13.2% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 20 | $44.59 89.17 coins | 11.9% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.54× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 10.0% | $29.95 59.89 coins | 16.0% | 2 | 5.2 | 0.38× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $18.27 36.53 coins | 9.8% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× | | [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-factory-new) | 10.0% | $10.74 21.48 coins | 5.7% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 10.0% | $7.63 15.26 coins | 4.1% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.15× | | [UMP-45 \| Indigo (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.63 11.26 coins | 3.0% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× | | [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 34.9% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 1.9% | 18 | 18.2 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=frozen-feather) [XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-factory-new) Hidden $21.05 42.09 coins $10.74 21.48 coins 0.51x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $21.05 42.09 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [UMP-45 | Indigo (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-factory-new) Hidden $21.05 42.09 coins $5.63 11.26 coins 0.27x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $21.05 42.09 coins $44.59 89.17 coins 2.12x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $21.05 42.09 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.05 42.09 coins $18.27 36.53 coins 0.87x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $21.05 42.09 coins $7.63 15.26 coins 0.36x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-factory-new) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $21.05 42.09 coins $10.74 21.48 coins 0.51x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $21.05 42.09 coins $7.63 15.26 coins 0.36x 2026-11-05 02:12 UTC [XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-factory-new) Hidden $21.05 42.09 coins $10.74 21.48 coins 0.51x 2026-11-05 02:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.05 | 89.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.1% other 1.0% classified 24.0% restricted 10.0% mil spec 45.0% consumer 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.00 on average: an expected loss of $11.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt