--- title: "Frozen case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Frozen ($2.74) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.04% from 8 items with odds, observed 88.54% over 2,734 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen rendered: 2026-11-11T18:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Frozen](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Frozen A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen?window=all) Price · $2.74 · 5.48 coins Advertised RTP · 90.04% · EV $2.47 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.54% · 2,734 openings, odds method Variance · 14.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 210 openings · below min 7 days · 84.34% ±18.69 1,557 openings 30 days · 88.54% ±14.10 2,734 openings since tracking started · 88.54% ±14.10 2,734 openings 43.0% 94.5% 146.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen?window=24h) | 210 | 94.72% ±50.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen?window=7d) | 1,557 | 84.34% ±18.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen) | 2,734 | 88.54% ±14.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/frozen?window=all) | 2,734 | 88.54% ±14.1 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,734 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-frost-borre-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $85.77 172 coins | 34.8% | 26 | 27.3 | 0.95× | | [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $57.92 116 coins | 23.5% | 28 | 27.3 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $12.79 25.57 coins | 10.4% | 56 | 54.7 | 1.02× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.59 9.17 coins | 9.3% | 125 | 136.7 | 0.91× | | [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.77 7.53 coins | 7.6% | 139 | 136.7 | 1.02× | | [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.70 1.41 coins | 8.6% | 810 | 820.2 | 0.99× | | [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 28.0% | $0.34 0.69 coins | 3.9% | 743 | 765.5 | 0.97× | | [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-factory-new) | 28.0% | $0.17 0.35 coins | 2.0% | 807 | 765.5 | 1.05× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=frozen) [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $2.74 5.48 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $2.74 5.48 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $2.74 5.48 coins $0.34 0.69 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $2.74 5.48 coins $0.34 0.69 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $2.74 5.48 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $2.74 5.48 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $2.74 5.48 coins $4.59 9.17 coins 1.67x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-factory-new) Hidden $2.74 5.48 coins $0.17 0.35 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $2.74 5.48 coins $0.34 0.69 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $2.74 5.48 coins $0.34 0.69 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.74 | 90.04% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 29.0% industrial 29.0% Legendary 2.0% restricted 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.04 on average: an expected loss of $9.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt