--- title: "Fuse case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fuse ($1,178.70) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 37.43% over 32 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fuse rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Fuse](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fuse) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Fuse A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fuse?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fuse?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fuse) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fuse?window=all) Price · $1,178.70 · 2,357 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,060.82 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 37.43% · 32 openings, odds method Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min -0.5% 111.8% 224.0% **Small sample.** 32 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fuse?window=24h) | 4 | 8.74% ±214.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fuse?window=7d) | 32 | 37.43% ±75.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fuse) | 32 | 37.43% ±75.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fuse?window=all) | 32 | 37.43% ±75.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $10.9K 21,888 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 111 | $9,483 18,967 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 8.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 80 | $8,347 16,693 coins | 9.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $7,444 14,887 coins | 11.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $7,137 14,274 coins | 11.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50 | $6,892 13,784 coins | 13.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| captainMo (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 33 | $5,513 11,026 coins | 15.6% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 87.3% | $103 206 coins | 8.5% | 30 | 27.9 | 1.07× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $1,179 2,357 coins $5,513 11,026 coins 4.68x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $1,179 2,357 coins $5,513 11,026 coins 4.68x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=fuse) [★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $1,179 2,357 coins $103 206 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $1,179 2,357 coins $103 206 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $1,179 2,357 coins $103 206 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $1,179 2,357 coins $103 206 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $1,179 2,357 coins $103 206 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $1,179 2,357 coins $5,513 11,026 coins 4.68x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $1,179 2,357 coins $103 206 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $1,179 2,357 coins $103 206 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $1,179 2,357 coins $103 206 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $1,179 2,357 coins $5,513 11,026 coins 4.68x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,179 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.5% contraband 0.7% #EB4B4B 0.9% extraordinary 4.7% gold 87.3% best hit $5,513 (4.68x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt