--- title: "Galaxy case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Galaxy ($72.98) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 33.78% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/galaxy rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Galaxy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/galaxy) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Galaxy A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/galaxy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/galaxy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/galaxy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/galaxy?window=all) Price · $72.98 · 146 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $65.68 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 33.78% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 47.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 53.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 68.8% 138.0% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 2.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/galaxy?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/galaxy?window=7d) | 6 | 33.78% ±103.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/galaxy) | 6 | 33.78% ±103.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/galaxy?window=all) | 6 | 33.78% ±103.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $531 1,062 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $487 974 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $438 876 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $372 743 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $348 696 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 42.0% | $90.84 182 coins | 58.1% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $13.44 26.87 coins | 1.6% | 3 | 0.5 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $13.27 26.54 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $11.62 23.23 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $10.56 21.12 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $9.21 18.42 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $7.59 15.17 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=galaxy) [M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) Hidden $72.98 146 coins $13.44 26.87 coins 0.18x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $72.98 146 coins $90.84 182 coins 1.24x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) Hidden $72.98 146 coins $7.59 15.17 coins 0.10x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) Hidden $72.98 146 coins $13.44 26.87 coins 0.18x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) Hidden $72.98 146 coins $13.44 26.87 coins 0.18x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-factory-new) [Brentson](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Brentson) $72.98 146 coins $9.21 18.42 coins 0.13x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $72.98 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 11.0% sunny 1.0% restricted 1.0% mil spec 51.0% Industrial Grade 9.0% industrial 9.0% Ancient 9.0% classified 9.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt