---
title: "Gamma Loadout case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Gamma Loadout ($2.93) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 16 items with odds, observed 99.01% over 698 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gamma-loadout
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Gamma Loadout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gamma-loadout)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Gamma Loadout

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gamma-loadout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gamma-loadout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gamma-loadout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gamma-loadout?window=all)

Price · $2.93 · 5.85 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $2.63 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.01% · 698 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80 openings · below min

7 days · 100.07% ±22.89 374 openings

30 days · 99.01% ±16.75 698 openings

since tracking started · 99.01% ±16.75 698 openings

29.5% 79.5% 129.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gamma-loadout?window=24h) | 80 | 79.39% ±49.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gamma-loadout?window=7d) | 374 | 100.07% ±22.9 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gamma-loadout) | 698 | 99.01% ±16.8 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gamma-loadout?window=all) | 698 | 99.01% ±16.8 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 698 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 3,333 | $171 341 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $166 333 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $162 323 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $153 307 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $153 306 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) | 13.0% | $5.81 11.61 coins | 28.7% | 72 | 90.7 | 0.79× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 12.0% | $5.51 11.01 coins | 25.1% | 78 | 83.8 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $4.78 9.55 coins | 12.7% | 48 | 48.9 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.58 9.15 coins | 12.2% | 57 | 48.9 | 1.17× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $3.35 6.69 coins | 1.3% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× |
| [FAMAS \| Night Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $3.03 6.06 coins | 1.2% | 3 | 7.0 | 0.43× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.39 4.78 coins | 2.7% | 14 | 20.9 | 0.67× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.09 2.17 coins | 1.2% | 17 | 20.9 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.04 2.08 coins | 1.2% | 38 | 20.9 | 1.81× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.48 0.96 coins | 4.6% | 185 | 174.5 | 1.06× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 24.9% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 178 | 173.5 | 1.03× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins $171 341 coins 58.33x 2026-11-04 09:13 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins $153 307 coins 52.45x 2026-11-06 02:41 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins $153 306 coins 52.36x 2026-11-08 15:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=gamma-loadout)

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins $5.81 11.61 coins 1.98x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins $1.09 2.17 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins $4.78 9.55 coins 1.63x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 22:28 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $2.93 5.85 coins $5.51 11.01 coins 1.88x 2026-11-10 22:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.93 | 89.97% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.1% classified 12.0% covert knife 0.1% light blue 13.0% mil spec 10.0% pink 4.0% Consumer Grade 1.0% Mythical 3.0% restricted 25.0% consumer 24.9% best hit $171 (58.33x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt