---
title: "Gem Talon case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Gem Talon ($20.73) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 16 items with odds, observed 73.12% over 3,480 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gem-talon
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Gem Talon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gem-talon)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Gem Talon

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gem-talon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gem-talon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gem-talon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gem-talon?window=all)

Price · $20.73 · 41.46 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $18.66 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.12% · 3,480 openings, odds method

Variance · 84.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 333 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 283 openings · below min

7 days · 67.84% ±32.48 3,092 openings

30 days · 73.12% ±30.62 3,480 openings

since tracking started · 73.12% ±30.62 3,480 openings

-0.5% 65.0% 130.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gem-talon?window=24h) | 283 | 22.56% ±107.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gem-talon?window=7d) | 3,092 | 67.84% ±32.5 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gem-talon) | 3,480 | 73.12% ±30.6 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gem-talon?window=all) | 3,480 | 73.12% ±30.6 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,480 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,746 7,492 coins | 20.1% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.15× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,644 7,288 coins | 19.5% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,934 5,868 coins | 15.7% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $457 914 coins | 2.5% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.44× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $369 737 coins | 4.0% | 3 | 7.0 | 0.43× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $233 465 coins | 2.5% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.15× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $181 362 coins | 3.9% | 17 | 13.9 | 1.22× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $175 350 coins | 3.8% | 14 | 13.9 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $33.09 66.18 coins | 4.3% | 79 | 83.5 | 0.95× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $22.31 44.61 coins | 6.0% | 191 | 174.0 | 1.10× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $19.18 38.36 coins | 5.1% | 155 | 174.0 | 0.89× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.88 11.75 coins | 3.1% | 335 | 348.0 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Bone Mask (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.24 8.48 coins | 2.3% | 379 | 348.0 | 1.09× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.83 5.65 coins | 3.0% | 699 | 696.0 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 24.0% | $2.24 4.47 coins | 2.9% | 832 | 835.2 | 1.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) | 22.0% | $1.22 2.44 coins | 1.4% | 756 | 765.6 | 0.99× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 180.7x 2026-11-08 04:44 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 180.7x 2026-11-06 12:08 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 180.7x 2026-11-06 00:36 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 180.7x 2026-11-05 19:03 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $2,934 5,868 coins 141.5x 2026-11-09 10:44 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $2,934 5,868 coins 141.5x 2026-11-04 03:23 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $2,934 5,868 coins 141.5x 2026-11-03 11:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=gem-talon)

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $2.24 4.47 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $2.83 5.65 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[P250 | Bone Mask (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-factory-new) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $4.24 8.48 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) [eliboti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eliboti) $20.73 41.46 coins $2.83 5.65 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $2.83 5.65 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $2.24 4.47 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $22.31 44.61 coins 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $2.24 4.47 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) Hidden $20.73 41.46 coins $2.24 4.47 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) [return](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/return) $20.73 41.46 coins $5.88 11.75 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.73 | 90.01% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.7% gold 0.1% Covert 0.8% restricted 36.4% mil spec 5.0% consumer 10.0% violet 20.0% #8847ff 22.0% best hit $3,746 (180.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt