--- title: "Ghost case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ghost ($25.67) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 112.81% over 98 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ghost rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Ghost](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ghost) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Ghost A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ghost?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ghost?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ghost) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ghost?window=all) Price · $25.67 · 51.33 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $23.10 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 112.81% · 98 openings, odds method Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 98 openings · below min 30 days · 98 openings · below min since tracking started · 98 openings · below min -0.5% 101.3% 203.0% **Small sample.** 98 openings and 5.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ghost?window=24h) | 8 | 10.06% ±192.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ghost?window=7d) | 98 | 112.81% ±54.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ghost) | 98 | 112.81% ±54.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ghost?window=all) | 98 | 112.81% ±54.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,918 3,835 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,405 2,810 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,353 2,706 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,182 2,363 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $954 1,908 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $640 1,280 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $434 868 coins | 18.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $276 552 coins | 23.9% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.53× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 50 | $167 335 coins | 14.5% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.04× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $147 294 coins | 12.7% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $113 226 coins | 9.8% | 5 | 2.0 | 2.55× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $62.66 125 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) | 19.9% | $8.80 17.59 coins | 7.6% | 19 | 19.5 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 28.0% | $0.55 1.09 coins | 0.7% | 22 | 27.4 | 0.80× | | [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.34 0.67 coins | 0.6% | 43 | 39.2 | 1.10× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ghost) [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) Hidden $25.67 51.33 coins $8.80 17.59 coins 0.34x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $25.67 51.33 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $25.67 51.33 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $25.67 51.33 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $25.67 51.33 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) Hidden $25.67 51.33 coins $8.80 17.59 coins 0.34x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $25.67 51.33 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [optic1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/optic1000) $25.67 51.33 coins $0.34 0.67 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) Hidden $25.67 51.33 coins $8.80 17.59 coins 0.34x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) Hidden $25.67 51.33 coins $0.34 0.67 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.67 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.0% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 0.0% Covert 0.0% gold 0.1% knifes 1.0% Classified 2.0% mil spec 47.9% #8847ff 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt