--- title: "Glitch case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Glitch ($41.62) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 114.28% over 452 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/glitch rendered: 2026-11-11T16:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Glitch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/glitch) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Glitch A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/glitch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/glitch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/glitch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/glitch?window=all) Price · $41.62 · 83.23 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $37.45 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 114.28% · 452 openings, odds method Variance · 27.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 53 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 176 openings · below min 7 days · 97.76% ±48.28 446 openings 30 days · 114.28% ±47.96 452 openings since tracking started · 114.28% ±47.96 452 openings -0.5% 81.3% 163.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/glitch?window=24h) | 176 | 53.45% ±76.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/glitch?window=7d) | 446 | 97.76% ±48.3 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/glitch) | 452 | 114.28% ±48.0 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/glitch?window=all) | 452 | 114.28% ±48.0 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 452 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $2,919 5,838 coins | 39.0% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $555 1,109 coins | 20.7% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $201 401 coins | 10.7% | 16 | 9.0 | 1.77× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $101 202 coins | 13.5% | 31 | 22.6 | 1.37× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 27.0% | $12.42 24.83 coins | 9.0% | 115 | 122.0 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 28.0% | $7.63 15.26 coins | 5.7% | 112 | 126.6 | 0.88× | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) | 18.0% | $3.04 6.08 coins | 1.5% | 78 | 81.4 | 0.96× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 18.1% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 90 | 81.8 | 1.10× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $2,919 5,838 coins 70.14x 2026-11-06 16:25 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $2,919 5,838 coins 70.14x 2026-11-05 23:14 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $2,919 5,838 coins 70.14x 2026-11-03 06:39 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $2,919 5,838 coins 70.14x 2026-11-03 06:39 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $555 1,109 coins 13.33x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $555 1,109 coins 13.33x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $555 1,109 coins 13.33x 2026-11-08 20:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $555 1,109 coins 13.33x 2026-11-08 15:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $555 1,109 coins 13.33x 2026-11-08 15:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-stained-factory-new) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $41.62 83.23 coins $555 1,109 coins 13.33x 2026-11-08 15:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=glitch) [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $7.63 15.26 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $7.63 15.26 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $12.42 24.83 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $12.42 24.83 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $12.42 24.83 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $7.63 15.26 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $41.62 83.23 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $101 202 coins 2.42x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) Hidden $41.62 83.23 coins $12.42 24.83 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $41.62 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 0.5% covert 33.4% Covert 2.0% restricted 28.0% industrial 18.0% #4b69ff 18.1% best hit $2,919 (70.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt