--- title: "Goblin Loot case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Goblin Loot ($8.92) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 93.30% over 6,225 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goblin-loot rendered: 2026-11-11T18:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Goblin Loot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goblin-loot) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Goblin Loot A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goblin-loot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goblin-loot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goblin-loot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goblin-loot?window=all) Price · $8.92 · 17.83 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $8.02 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.30% · 6,225 openings, odds method Variance · 34.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 56 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 131.82% ±43.92 687 openings 7 days · 100.38% ±16.79 4,703 openings 30 days · 93.30% ±14.59 6,225 openings since tracking started · 93.30% ±14.59 6,225 openings 78.0% 127.3% 176.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goblin-loot?window=24h) | 687 | 131.82% ±43.9 | +1.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goblin-loot?window=7d) | 4,703 | 100.38% ±16.8 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goblin-loot) | 6,225 | 93.30% ±14.6 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goblin-loot?window=all) | 6,225 | 93.30% ±14.6 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,225 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,301 2,602 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,250 2,500 coins | 3.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.61× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,227 2,453 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,010 2,020 coins | 6.3% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $707 1,413 coins | 17.6% | 11 | 12.5 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $264 527 coins | 16.4% | 31 | 31.1 | 1.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $117 234 coins | 14.6% | 66 | 62.3 | 1.06× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 10.0% | $16.57 33.13 coins | 20.6% | 646 | 622.5 | 1.04× | | [P90 \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) | 88.2% | $1.51 3.02 coins | 16.6% | 5,463 | 5490.4 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1,301 2,602 coins 145.9x 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1,301 2,602 coins 145.9x 2026-11-11 01:15 UTC [Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1,250 2,500 coins 140.2x 2026-11-11 09:35 UTC [Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1,250 2,500 coins 140.2x 2026-11-09 11:52 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 113.3x 2026-11-08 00:02 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 113.3x 2026-11-06 17:21 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 113.3x 2026-11-04 23:21 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 113.3x 2026-11-04 00:27 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $707 1,413 coins 79.27x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $707 1,413 coins 79.27x 2026-11-11 01:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=goblin-loot) [P90 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1.51 3.02 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P90 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1.51 3.02 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P90 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1.51 3.02 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P90 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1.51 3.02 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P90 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1.51 3.02 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P90 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1.51 3.02 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $16.57 33.13 coins 1.86x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $8.92 17.83 coins $16.57 33.13 coins 1.86x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P90 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1.51 3.02 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [P90 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) Hidden $8.92 17.83 coins $1.51 3.02 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.92 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% extraordinary 0.0% covert knife 0.5% other 1.0% restricted 10.0% Common 88.2% best hit $1,301 (145.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt