--- title: "Gold Fever case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Gold Fever ($197.43) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 15 items with odds, observed 36.41% over 72 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-fever rendered: 2026-11-11T21:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Gold Fever](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-fever) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Gold Fever A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-fever?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-fever?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-fever) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-fever?window=all) Price · $197.43 · 395 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $177.68 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 36.41% · 72 openings, odds method Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 72 openings · below min 30 days · 72 openings · below min since tracking started · 72 openings · below min -0.5% 45.0% 90.5% **Small sample.** 72 openings and 5.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-fever?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-fever?window=7d) | 72 | 36.41% ±51.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-fever) | 72 | 36.41% ±51.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-fever?window=all) | 72 | 36.41% ±51.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,301 2,602 coins | 7.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,296 2,593 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $1,293 2,585 coins | 7.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,289 2,577 coins | 7.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $1,271 2,542 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $1,266 2,533 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $1,265 2,529 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,263 2,526 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| NiKo (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 100 | $1,253 2,507 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 100 | $1,250 2,500 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 86.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 68 | 61.9 | 1.10× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) [Tomex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Tomex) $197 395 coins $1,301 2,602 coins 6.59x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $197 395 coins $1,293 2,585 coins 6.55x 2026-11-08 05:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $197 395 coins $1,293 2,585 coins 6.55x 2026-11-08 05:11 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | POW! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-factory-new) Hidden $197 395 coins $1,289 2,577 coins 6.53x 2026-11-08 05:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=gold-fever) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $197 395 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $197 395 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $197 395 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $197 395 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $197 395 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $197 395 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $197 395 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $197 395 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $197 395 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $197 395 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $197 | 90.00% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.0% classified 1.0% extraordinary 3.0% other 1.0% #4b69ff 86.0% best hit $1,301 (6.59x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt