--- title: "Gold Rush case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Gold Rush ($87.62) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 87.57% over 1,496 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-rush rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Gold Rush](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-rush) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Gold Rush A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-rush?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-rush?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-rush) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-rush?window=all) Price · $87.62 · 175 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $78.86 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.57% · 1,496 openings, odds method Variance · 17.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 47 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 95.44% ±46.31 310 openings 30 days · 87.57% ±21.08 1,496 openings since tracking started · 87.57% ±21.08 1,496 openings 48.5% 95.5% 142.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-rush?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-rush?window=7d) | 310 | 95.44% ±46.3 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-rush) | 1,496 | 87.57% ±21.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gold-rush?window=all) | 1,496 | 87.57% ±21.1 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,496 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| LUCAS1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas1-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,441 14,883 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $6,181 12,362 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| kNgV- (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kngv-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 1,429 | $4,260 8,520 coins | 3.8% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.91× | | [Sticker \| keshandr (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keshandr-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,915 7,830 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [Sticker \| ropz (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ropz-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 800 | $3,290 6,581 coins | 5.2% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 435 | $2,694 5,388 coins | 7.9% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× | | [Sticker \| s1mple (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 333 | $2,401 4,803 coins | 9.1% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× | | [Sticker \| DD (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dd-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 200 | $1,751 3,502 coins | 11.1% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.07× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 132 | $1,396 2,792 coins | 13.5% | 16 | 11.4 | 1.41× | | [Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 121 | $1,250 2,500 coins | 13.1% | 12 | 12.3 | 0.97× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $528 1,057 coins | 10.1% | 20 | 22.4 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $315 630 coins | 12.0% | 44 | 44.9 | 0.98× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $60.29 121 coins | 2.3% | 37 | 44.9 | 0.82× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $35.33 70.65 coins | 1.3% | 45 | 44.9 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $30.88 61.75 coins | 1.2% | 47 | 44.9 | 1.05× | | [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) | 83.6% | $1.94 3.88 coins | 2.1% | 1,257 | 1250.1 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | kNgV- (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kngv-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $4,260 8,520 coins 48.62x 2026-11-06 13:45 UTC [Sticker | kNgV- (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kngv-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $4,260 8,520 coins 48.62x 2026-11-04 04:07 UTC [Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keshandr-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $3,915 7,830 coins 44.68x 2026-11-04 04:12 UTC [Sticker | ropz (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ropz-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $3,290 6,581 coins 37.55x 2026-11-05 19:01 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 30.75x 2026-11-04 03:36 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 30.75x 2026-11-04 00:51 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 30.75x 2026-11-04 00:28 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 30.75x 2026-11-03 21:51 UTC [Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-boston-2018) [raka12k](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/raka12k) $87.62 175 coins $2,401 4,803 coins 27.41x 2026-11-08 17:12 UTC [Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $2,401 4,803 coins 27.41x 2026-11-04 01:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=gold-rush) [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $1.94 3.88 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $1.94 3.88 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $528 1,057 coins 6.03x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $315 630 coins 3.59x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $1.94 3.88 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $1.94 3.88 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $1.94 3.88 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $1.94 3.88 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $1.94 3.88 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 03:50 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) Hidden $87.62 175 coins $1.94 3.88 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 03:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $87.62 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 0.0% covert 11.5% extraordinary 1.4% #EB4B4B 0.1% Ancient 0.1% Extraordinary 0.3% restricted 3.0% #8847ff 83.6% best hit $4,260 (48.62x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt