---
title: "Golden Dream case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Golden Dream ($17.46) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 16 items with odds, observed 145.53% over 564 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-dream
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Golden Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-dream)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Golden Dream

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-dream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-dream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-dream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-dream?window=all)

Price · $17.46 · 34.91 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $15.71 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 145.53% · 564 openings, odds method

Variance · 18.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 127.05% ±46.00 336 openings

30 days · 145.53% ±35.50 564 openings

since tracking started · 145.53% ±35.50 564 openings

-0.5% 219.3% 439.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.98% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (110.03% – 181.03%, 564 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-dream?window=24h) | 6 | 94.00% ±344.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-dream?window=7d) | 336 | 127.05% ±46.0 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-dream) | 564 | 145.53% ±35.5 | +3.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-dream?window=all) | 564 | 145.53% ±35.5 | +3.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 564 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,181 12,362 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $4,097 8,194 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,340 4,679 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,178 2,355 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $650 1,300 coins | 2.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $525 1,050 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $423 846 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 602 | $338 676 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 602 | $329 659 coins | 3.5% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $284 567 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $158 316 coins | 5.0% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $114 227 coins | 5.8% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $60.29 121 coins | 7.7% | 13 | 11.3 | 1.15× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 20.0% | $30.88 61.75 coins | 39.3% | 118 | 112.8 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $15.39 30.77 coins | 7.8% | 41 | 45.1 | 0.91× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) | 67.9% | $1.94 3.88 coins | 8.4% | 378 | 382.9 | 0.99× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $17.46 34.91 coins $4,097 8,194 coins 234.7x 2026-11-04 07:15 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $17.46 34.91 coins $1,178 2,355 coins 67.47x 2026-11-07 12:05 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $17.46 34.91 coins $650 1,300 coins 37.23x 2026-11-05 04:38 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $17.46 34.91 coins $525 1,050 coins 30.07x 2026-11-05 15:50 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=golden-dream)

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) Hidden $17.46 34.91 coins $1.94 3.88 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) Hidden $17.46 34.91 coins $30.88 61.75 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) Hidden $17.46 34.91 coins $1.94 3.88 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) Hidden $17.46 34.91 coins $1.94 3.88 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) Hidden $17.46 34.91 coins $30.88 61.75 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) [kruley](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kruley) $17.46 34.91 coins $30.88 61.75 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC

[P250 | Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $17.46 34.91 coins $15.39 30.77 coins 0.88x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $17.46 34.91 coins $1.94 3.88 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) Hidden $17.46 34.91 coins $30.88 61.75 coins 1.77x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) Hidden $17.46 34.91 coins $30.88 61.75 coins 1.77x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.46 | 89.98% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.8% extraordinary 0.2% gold 0.1% epic 0.1% restricted 20.0% #4b69ff 8.0% #8847ff 67.9% best hit $4,097 (234.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt