--- title: "Golden Pepe case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Golden Pepe ($308.75) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 147.25% over 39 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-pepe rendered: 2026-11-11T22:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Golden Pepe](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-pepe) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Golden Pepe A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-pepe?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-pepe?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-pepe) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-pepe?window=all) Price · $308.75 · 618 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $277.87 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 147.25% · 39 openings, odds method Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 39 openings · below min 30 days · 39 openings · below min since tracking started · 39 openings · below min 88.5% 147.0% 205.5% **Small sample.** 39 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-pepe?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-pepe?window=7d) | 39 | 147.25% ±57.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-pepe) | 39 | 147.25% ±57.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-pepe?window=all) | 39 | 147.25% ±57.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 286 | $2,935 5,870 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 182 | $2,539 5,078 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 91 | $1,946 3,893 coins | 7.7% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1,757 3,515 coins | 9.5% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50 | $1,723 3,447 coins | 12.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33 | $1,449 2,899 coins | 15.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1,266 2,533 coins | 16.0% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.93× | | [Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 25 | $1,250 2,500 coins | 18.0% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $251 501 coins | 5.4% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $201 401 coins | 4.3% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 10.0% | $50.22 100 coins | 1.8% | 7 | 3.9 | 1.79× | | [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-field-tested) | 12.5% | $7.88 15.75 coins | 0.4% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.44× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 12.5% | $2.64 5.27 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× | | [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 37.0% | $0.50 1 coins | 0.1% | 9 | 14.4 | 0.62× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $309 618 coins $2,539 5,078 coins 8.22x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $309 618 coins $1,946 3,893 coins 6.30x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $309 618 coins $1,946 3,893 coins 6.30x 2026-11-06 19:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $309 618 coins $1,757 3,515 coins 5.69x 2026-11-05 12:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $309 618 coins $1,757 3,515 coins 5.69x 2026-11-05 11:59 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Zen](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Zen) $309 618 coins $1,449 2,899 coins 4.69x 2026-11-05 12:00 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $309 618 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 4.10x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $309 618 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 4.10x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $309 618 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 4.10x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $309 618 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 4.10x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=golden-pepe) [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $309 618 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 4.10x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $309 618 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 4.10x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $309 618 coins $201 401 coins 0.65x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $309 618 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 4.10x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $309 618 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $309 618 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $309 618 coins $2,539 5,078 coins 8.22x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-field-tested) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $309 618 coins $7.88 15.75 coins 0.03x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $309 618 coins $201 401 coins 0.65x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $309 618 coins $50.22 100 coins 0.16x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $309 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.0% remarkable 2.6% legendary 1.5% extraordinary 14.0% restricted 6.0% covert knife 6.0% #4b69ff 49.5% classified 12.5% best hit $2,539 (8.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt