--- title: "Golden Vault case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Golden Vault ($15.72) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 14 items with odds, observed 98.65% over 2,318 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-vault rendered: 2026-11-11T19:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Golden Vault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-vault) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Golden Vault A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-vault?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-vault?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-vault) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-vault?window=all) Price · $15.72 · 31.44 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $14.15 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.65% · 2,318 openings, odds method Variance · 17.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 37 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.76% ±31.42 673 openings 7 days · 99.30% ±20.09 1,646 openings 30 days · 98.65% ±16.93 2,318 openings since tracking started · 98.65% ±16.93 2,318 openings 48.5% 84.3% 120.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-vault?window=24h) | 673 | 80.76% ±31.4 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-vault?window=7d) | 1,646 | 99.30% ±20.1 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-vault) | 2,318 | 98.65% ±16.9 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golden-vault?window=all) | 2,318 | 98.65% ±16.9 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,318 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,528 5,057 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| JW (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,410 2,820 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,396 2,792 coins | 4.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× | | [Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,250 2,500 coins | 4.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.73× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $315 630 coins | 7.8% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.36× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $247 493 coins | 10.5% | 14 | 13.9 | 1.01× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $204 409 coins | 8.7% | 20 | 13.9 | 1.44× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $117 235 coins | 8.3% | 21 | 23.2 | 0.91× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $60.29 121 coins | 8.5% | 54 | 46.4 | 1.16× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $43.68 87.36 coins | 7.7% | 66 | 58.0 | 1.14× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $30.88 61.75 coins | 6.5% | 74 | 69.5 | 1.06× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $28.98 57.96 coins | 6.1% | 71 | 69.5 | 1.02× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 40.0% | $3.43 6.85 coins | 9.7% | 884 | 927.2 | 0.95× | | [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) | 46.8% | $3.34 6.67 coins | 11.0% | 1,099 | 1084.8 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | JW (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $1,410 2,820 coins 89.71x 2026-11-06 00:44 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $1,396 2,792 coins 88.80x 2026-11-10 19:46 UTC [Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $1,250 2,500 coins 79.52x 2026-11-10 00:32 UTC [Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $1,250 2,500 coins 79.52x 2026-11-07 06:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=golden-vault) [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $3.34 6.67 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $3.34 6.67 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $3.34 6.67 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $3.43 6.85 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $3.34 6.67 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $3.43 6.85 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $3.43 6.85 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $15.72 31.44 coins $3.43 6.85 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $3.34 6.67 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC [AUG | Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $15.72 31.44 coins $28.98 57.96 coins 1.84x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.72 | 89.98% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Extraordinary 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% covert 4.6% restricted 5.5% classified 43.0% #8847ff 46.8% best hit $1,410 (89.71x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt