---
title: "Golds Only case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Golds Only ($2,598.36) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 96.55% over 8 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golds-only
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Golds Only](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golds-only)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Golds Only

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golds-only?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golds-only?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golds-only) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golds-only?window=all)

Price · $2,598.36 · 5,197 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2,338.52 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.55% · 8 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 8 openings · below min

30 days · 8 openings · below min

since tracking started · 8 openings · below min

40.5% 96.5% 152.5%

**Small sample.** 8 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golds-only?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golds-only?window=7d) | 8 | 96.55% ±55.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golds-only) | 8 | 96.55% ±55.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/golds-only?window=all) | 8 | 96.55% ±55.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $10.6K 21,246 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 40 | $6,328 12,655 coins | 6.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $6,222 12,443 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 40 | $5,803 11,607 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $4,198 8,395 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2,946 5,893 coins | 6.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 20 | $2,844 5,688 coins | 6.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 17 | $2,251 4,502 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 14 | $1,946 3,893 coins | 5.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 14 | $1,834 3,667 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) | 28.0% | $1,461 2,922 coins | 17.5% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× |
| [Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) | 28.4% | $1,250 2,500 coins | 15.2% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $6,328 12,655 coins 2.44x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $2,946 5,893 coins 1.13x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $2,844 5,688 coins 1.09x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $1,946 3,893 coins 0.75x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $1,834 3,667 coins 0.71x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $1,461 2,922 coins 0.56x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $1,461 2,922 coins 0.56x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $1,250 2,500 coins 0.48x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=golds-only)

[Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $1,250 2,500 coins 0.48x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $2,946 5,893 coins 1.13x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $1,946 3,893 coins 0.75x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $6,328 12,655 coins 2.44x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $1,461 2,922 coins 0.56x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $2,844 5,688 coins 1.09x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $1,834 3,667 coins 0.71x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $2,598 5,197 coins $1,461 2,922 coins 0.56x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,598 | 90.00% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 2.6% covert 32.5% extraordinary 30.9% Covert 34.0% best hit $6,328 (2.44x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt