--- title: "Goon case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Goon ($24.31) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 15 items with odds, observed 98.83% over 200 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goon rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Goon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goon) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Goon A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goon?window=all) Price · $24.31 · 48.62 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $21.87 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.83% · 200 openings, odds method Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 100.60% ±37.94 176 openings 30 days · 98.83% ±35.59 200 openings since tracking started · 98.83% ±35.59 200 openings -0.5% 104.0% 208.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goon?window=24h) | 6 | 2.49% ±205.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goon?window=7d) | 176 | 100.60% ±37.9 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goon) | 200 | 98.83% ±35.6 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/goon?window=all) | 200 | 98.83% ±35.6 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 200 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $493 986 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $480 960 coins | 7.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $378 756 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $369 737 coins | 8.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $213 426 coins | 7.8% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $182 363 coins | 8.3% | 6 | 2.0 | 3.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $121 242 coins | 8.3% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $109 218 coins | 7.5% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $71.76 144 coins | 9.8% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $65.42 131 coins | 9.0% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $58.12 116 coins | 8.0% | 10 | 6.0 | 1.67× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $55.37 111 coins | 7.6% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.67 3.34 coins | 1.1% | 27 | 30.0 | 0.90× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.18 2.36 coins | 0.8% | 30 | 30.0 | 1.00× | | [AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) | 51.6% | $0.60 1.21 coins | 1.4% | 100 | 103.2 | 0.97× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=goon) [AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) Hidden $24.31 48.62 coins $0.60 1.21 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:48 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) Hidden $24.31 48.62 coins $0.60 1.21 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:48 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) Hidden $24.31 48.62 coins $0.60 1.21 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:48 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) Hidden $24.31 48.62 coins $0.60 1.21 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:48 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) Hidden $24.31 48.62 coins $0.60 1.21 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:48 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) [pooop](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pooop) $24.31 48.62 coins $0.60 1.21 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:48 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) Hidden $24.31 48.62 coins $0.60 1.21 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-army-sheen-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.31 48.62 coins $1.18 2.36 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) Hidden $24.31 48.62 coins $0.60 1.21 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $24.31 48.62 coins $0.60 1.21 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.31 | 89.98% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.8% epic 0.4% mil spec 6.5% restricted 0.8% extraordinary 3.0% Restricted 3.0% pink 15.0% Common 15.0% Mythical 51.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt