--- title: "Graviton case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Graviton ($5.31) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 16 items with odds, observed 85.39% over 3,283 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/graviton rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Graviton](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/graviton) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Graviton A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/graviton?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/graviton?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/graviton) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/graviton?window=all) Price · $5.31 · 10.62 coins Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $4.78 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.39% · 3,283 openings, odds method Variance · 41.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81.18% ±60.58 432 openings 7 days · 84.08% ±26.97 2,180 openings 30 days · 85.39% ±21.98 3,283 openings since tracking started · 85.39% ±21.98 3,283 openings 20.0% 81.3% 142.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/graviton?window=24h) | 432 | 81.18% ±60.6 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/graviton?window=7d) | 2,180 | 84.08% ±27.0 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/graviton) | 3,283 | 85.39% ±22.0 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/graviton?window=all) | 3,283 | 85.39% ±22.0 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,283 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100,000 | $8,079 16,159 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $3,107 6,214 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $86.84 174 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $62.66 125 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $46.72 93.43 coins | 0.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× | | [P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $34.93 69.86 coins | 1.5% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.22× | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $21.68 43.36 coins | 3.0% | 22 | 21.3 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $18.18 36.35 coins | 4.6% | 44 | 39.4 | 1.12× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $15.17 30.34 coins | 9.5% | 92 | 98.5 | 0.93× | | [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $14.08 28.16 coins | 11.8% | 127 | 131.3 | 0.97× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $13.44 26.87 coins | 11.3% | 130 | 131.3 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $12.07 24.13 coins | 10.1% | 135 | 131.3 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $10.13 20.26 coins | 8.5% | 136 | 131.3 | 1.04× | | [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 11.0% | $6.70 13.4 coins | 15.4% | 352 | 361.1 | 0.97× | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.04 6.08 coins | 9.5% | 467 | 492.4 | 0.95× | | [MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) | 52.8% | $0.80 1.6 coins | 8.9% | 1,766 | 1735.0 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=graviton) [Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) Hidden $5.31 10.62 coins $6.70 13.4 coins 1.26x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) Hidden $5.31 10.62 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) Hidden $5.31 10.62 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) Hidden $5.31 10.62 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $5.31 10.62 coins $18.18 36.35 coins 3.42x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $5.31 10.62 coins $6.70 13.4 coins 1.26x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) Hidden $5.31 10.62 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) Hidden $5.31 10.62 coins $3.04 6.08 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) Hidden $5.31 10.62 coins $3.04 6.08 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) Hidden $5.31 10.62 coins $3.04 6.08 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.31 | 89.96% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.9% other 0.0% covert knife 0.0% restricted 53.1% classified 14.0% red 4.0% Uncommon 4.0% industrial 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt