--- title: "Grinch case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Grinch ($349.58) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 31.26% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grinch rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Grinch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grinch) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Grinch A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grinch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grinch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grinch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grinch?window=all) Price · $349.58 · 699 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $314.62 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 31.26% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 6.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 120.3% 241.0% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grinch?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grinch?window=7d) | 6 | 31.26% ±209.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grinch) | 6 | 31.26% ±209.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grinch?window=all) | 6 | 31.26% ±209.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $8,972 17,944 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $6,222 12,443 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $3,288 6,576 coins | 10.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 50 | $2,338 4,676 coins | 14.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33 | $1,429 2,858 coins | 13.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33 | $966 1,931 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $658 1,315 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $583 1,165 coins | 7.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $545 1,090 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $190 381 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 11.0% | $40.72 81.43 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 11.0% | $23.26 46.51 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 11.0% | $19.18 38.36 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) | 11.0% | $6.93 13.86 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 28.1% | $1.07 2.13 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $350 699 coins $583 1,165 coins 1.67x 2026-11-04 20:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=grinch) [AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $350 699 coins $583 1,165 coins 1.67x 2026-11-04 20:40 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) Hidden $350 699 coins $40.72 81.43 coins 0.12x 2026-11-04 20:40 UTC [M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $350 699 coins $1.07 2.13 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 20:40 UTC [SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $350 699 coins $23.26 46.51 coins 0.07x 2026-11-04 20:40 UTC [M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $350 699 coins $1.07 2.13 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 20:40 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) [justsan](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/justsan) $350 699 coins $6.93 13.86 coins 0.02x 2026-11-04 20:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $350 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 11.1% legendary 0.3% extraordinary 4.5% Covert 6.0% other 6.0% gold 11.0% restricted 39.1% mil spec 11.0% Mythical 11.0% best hit $583 (1.67x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt