---
title: "Grogu Mesh case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Grogu Mesh ($18.73) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 87.86% over 140 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grogu-mesh
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Grogu Mesh](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grogu-mesh)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Grogu Mesh

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grogu-mesh?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grogu-mesh?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grogu-mesh) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grogu-mesh?window=all)

Price · $18.73 · 37.46 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $16.85 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.86% · 140 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 87.86% ±38.92 140 openings

30 days · 87.86% ±38.92 140 openings

since tracking started · 87.86% ±38.92 140 openings

48.5% 88.0% 127.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grogu-mesh?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grogu-mesh?window=7d) | 140 | 87.86% ±38.9 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grogu-mesh) | 140 | 87.86% ±38.9 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/grogu-mesh?window=all) | 140 | 87.86% ±38.9 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $658 1,315 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $413 827 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $279 559 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $189 378 coins | 7.9% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $136 273 coins | 8.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $135 270 coins | 8.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $133 266 coins | 7.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $128 256 coins | 7.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $105 210 coins | 6.2% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.86× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $94.25 189 coins | 11.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $81.27 163 coins | 9.6% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [Souvenir P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $77.53 155 coins | 9.2% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $62.99 126 coins | 7.5% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $56.76 114 coins | 6.7% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 21.0% | $0.87 1.74 coins | 1.1% | 31 | 29.4 | 1.05× |
| [M249 \| Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) | 62.9% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 85 | 88.0 | 0.97× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=grogu-mesh)

[M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $18.73 37.46 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC

[G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $18.73 37.46 coins $0.87 1.74 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC

[M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $18.73 37.46 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC

[G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) [pooop](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pooop) $18.73 37.46 coins $0.87 1.74 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC

[M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $18.73 37.46 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:28 UTC

[M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $18.73 37.46 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:28 UTC

[G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $18.73 37.46 coins $0.87 1.74 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 15:28 UTC

[M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) [nameje](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/nameje) $18.73 37.46 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:28 UTC

[M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $18.73 37.46 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:59 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $18.73 37.46 coins $94.25 189 coins 5.03x 2026-11-10 14:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.73 | 89.99% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 62.9% other 3.0% gold 2.1% sunny 0.3% covert 0.7% Industrial Grade 1.0% covert knife 5.0% knifes 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 2.0% consumer 21.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt