--- title: "Gungnir Troll case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Gungnir Troll ($1.41) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.85% from 12 items with odds, observed 100.89% over 17.3K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gungnir-troll rendered: 2026-11-11T14:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Gungnir Troll](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gungnir-troll) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Gungnir Troll A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gungnir-troll?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gungnir-troll?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gungnir-troll) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gungnir-troll?window=all) Price · $1.41 · 2.82 coins Advertised RTP · 89.85% · EV $1.27 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.89% · 17.3K openings, odds method Variance · 1165.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,099 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 418 openings · below min 7 days · 99.89% ±51.94 16.6K openings 30 days · 100.89% ±50.80 17.3K openings since tracking started · 100.89% ±50.80 17.3K openings -0.5% 272.5% 545.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gungnir-troll?window=24h) | 418 | 217.64% ±327.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gungnir-troll?window=7d) | 16.6K | 99.89% ±51.9 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gungnir-troll) | 17.3K | 100.89% ±50.8 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gungnir-troll?window=all) | 17.3K | 100.89% ±50.8 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.3K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,266 2,533 coins | 90.0% | 19 | 15.6 | 1.22× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $5.17 10.34 coins | 0.4% | 22 | 15.6 | 1.41× | | [P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $5.03 10.05 coins | 0.4% | 15 | 15.6 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 12.5% | $0.07 0.15 coins | 0.7% | 2,250 | 2161.6 | 1.04× | | [SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) | 12.5% | $0.03 0.06 coins | 0.3% | 2,075 | 2161.6 | 0.96× | | [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) | 12.5% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 2,165 | 2161.6 | 1.00× | | [SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-field-tested) | 12.5% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 2,259 | 2161.6 | 1.05× | | [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) | 12.5% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 2,157 | 2161.6 | 1.00× | | [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) | 12.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 2,090 | 2161.6 | 0.97× | | [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) | 12.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 2,115 | 2161.6 | 0.98× | | [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 12.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,181 | 2170.1 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 898.2x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 898.2x 2026-11-09 02:28 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 898.2x 2026-11-09 01:51 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 898.2x 2026-11-09 01:51 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 898.2x 2026-11-09 01:36 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 898.2x 2026-11-09 01:27 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 898.2x 2026-11-09 01:14 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) [gramou](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/gramou) $1.41 2.82 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 898.2x 2026-11-09 00:50 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 898.2x 2026-11-08 04:23 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 898.2x 2026-11-08 04:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=gungnir-troll) [SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $0.03 0.06 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-field-tested) [GrimViper3313](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/GrimViper3313) $1.41 2.82 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $0.03 0.06 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.82 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.41 | 89.85% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% classified 0.1% Uncommon 0.1% milspec 37.4% blue 12.5% consumer 37.4% industrial 12.5% best hit $1,266 (898.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.85 on average: an expected loss of $10.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt