--- title: "Gut case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Gut ($7.89) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 13 items with odds, observed 82.58% over 163 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gut rendered: 2026-11-11T21:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Gut](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gut) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Gut A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gut?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gut?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gut) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gut?window=all) Price · $7.89 · 15.77 coins Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $7.09 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.58% · 163 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 79.04% ±33.69 139 openings 30 days · 82.58% ±31.11 163 openings since tracking started · 82.58% ±31.11 163 openings -0.5% 123.0% 246.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gut?window=24h) | 6 | 83.89% ±162.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gut?window=7d) | 139 | 79.04% ±33.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gut) | 163 | 82.58% ±31.1 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/gut?window=all) | 163 | 82.58% ±31.1 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 169 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $150 300 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $130 259 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $101 202 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-hazard-pay-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $94.27 189 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $93.08 186 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $81.27 163 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $70.56 141 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $51.43 103 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $31.71 63.42 coins | 8.9% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $17.64 35.28 coins | 14.9% | 13 | 10.1 | 1.28× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 15.0% | $11.64 23.28 coins | 24.6% | 35 | 25.3 | 1.38× | | [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 24.9% | $2.21 4.42 coins | 7.8% | 33 | 42.1 | 0.78× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 49.7% | $1.59 3.18 coins | 11.1% | 84 | 84.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=gut) [Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) [foulito](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/foulito) $7.89 15.77 coins $1.59 3.18 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.77 coins $11.64 23.28 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) Hidden $7.89 15.77 coins $1.59 3.18 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.77 coins $11.64 23.28 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.77 coins $11.64 23.28 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) Hidden $7.89 15.77 coins $1.59 3.18 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) Hidden $7.89 15.77 coins $1.59 3.18 coins 0.20x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.77 coins $2.21 4.42 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.77 coins $11.64 23.28 coins 1.48x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) Hidden $7.89 15.77 coins $1.59 3.18 coins 0.20x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.89 | 89.96% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.3% covert 0.9% Classified 0.3% other 0.6% industrial 0.3% extraordinary 2.0% Consumer Grade 6.0% mil spec 15.0% consumer 24.9% Legendary 49.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt