--- title: "Hail mary case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hail mary ($2.07) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 246.37% over 422 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hail-mary rendered: 2026-11-12T07:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Hail mary](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hail-mary) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Hail mary A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hail-mary?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hail-mary?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hail-mary) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hail-mary?window=all) Price · $2.07 · 4.13 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 246.37% · 422 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 248 openings · below min 30 days · 422 openings · below min since tracking started · 422 openings · below min -0.5% 388.3% 777.0% **Small sample.** 422 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hail-mary?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hail-mary?window=7d) | 248 | 371.70% ±404.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hail-mary) | 422 | 246.37% ±241.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hail-mary?window=all) | 422 | 246.37% ±241.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $735 1,470 coins 356.0x 2026-11-07 22:08 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $735 1,470 coins 356.0x 2026-11-07 22:07 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $178 356 coins 86.24x 2026-11-04 11:38 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $122 244 coins 59.19x 2026-11-10 13:02 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $122 244 coins 59.19x 2026-11-10 10:31 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $122 244 coins 59.19x 2026-11-08 13:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=hail-mary) [P90 | Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) [LunarComet2794](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/LunarComet2794) $2.07 4.13 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 13:01 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $122 244 coins 59.19x 2026-11-10 13:01 UTC [P90 | Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 13:01 UTC [P90 | Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 13:01 UTC [P90 | Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 13:01 UTC [P90 | Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 13:01 UTC [P90 | Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 13:01 UTC [P90 | Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 13:01 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [LunarComet2794](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/LunarComet2794) $2.07 4.13 coins $61.84 124 coins 29.94x 2026-11-10 13:00 UTC [P90 | Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) Hidden $2.07 4.13 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 13:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $735 (356.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 246.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $246.37 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt